【世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 】2026年印度住宅市场展望报告 (英文版) (16页) .pdf

Market Outlook2026 WearepleasedtopresenttheIndiaMarketOutlook2026,ourpremiermarketintelligencereportdeliveringadistilledperspectiveonthenation’sevolvingrealestatelandscape.Anchoredbydata-drivenrigourandinstitutionalexpertise,thispublicationaimstodecipherthestructuralshiftsandstrategictrajectoriesdefiningthesector’scurrentmomentum. India’seconomiclandscapecontinuestobecharacterisedbyaresilientgrowthbaselineandadisciplinedfiscalframework,albeitincreasinglytestedbyglobalvolatility.Whilerobustpubliccapitalexpendituresustainsdomesticmomentum,systemicrisks—particularlywithinenergymarkets—necessitateacalibratedoutlook.Inthisenvironment,proactivetradediplomacyandstrategicprojectde-riskingcouldserveasvitalbuffers,providingthepolicyvisibilityessentialforsustainedinvestment. Anshuman MagazineChairman & CEOIndia, South-East Asia, MiddleEast & Africa, CBRE Theofficesectorissettosurpassthe1-billion-sq.-ft.thresholdin2026,drivenbyinvestment-gradesupplyandtheexpansionofGCCsintohigh-complexityR&Drolesandproductownership.Thismulti-dimensionalecosystemisbeingredefinedbyastructuralpivottowardsAI-drivenworkforcestrategies,whereoccupiersincreasinglyprioritisefuture-ready,high-performanceenvironmentstosustainlong-terminstitutionalgrowth. Paralleltothis,theindustrialandlogisticssectorsaretransitioningtowardsmanufacturing-ledgrowthandinstitutional-gradewarehousing,bolsteredbynew-ageautomationanddeepeningin-citydeliverynetworks.Simultaneously,theretaillandscapeisbeingreshapedbyexperientialflagshipformatsanddestinationmalls,asinvestment-gradesupplyandhigh-streetcorridorsdrivethesteadyexpansionoftheorganisedfootprint. Notably,theresidentialsectorismovingtowardsmarketequilibrium,ledbypremiumdemandanddisciplinedsupply-demandparity.Atthesametime,structuralREITreformsandsustainedinvestmentmomentumareacceleratinginstitutionalmaturity,drivingaresurgenceininternationalcapitalandlong-termequityinflowsintoIndia’srealestatesector. Collectively,theseshiftsunderscoreamarketmovingtowardsasophisticatederaofinstitutional-gradematurity.Wetrustthisreportwillserveasadefinitiveframeworkfornavigatingthecomplexitiesofthe2026landscapeandinformingyourstrategiccapitalobjectives.Foreword Abhinav JoshiHead of Research, India, MiddleEast & North Africa, CBRE Contents EconomyResidential0408 Economy01 India’s2026economicoutlookischaracterisedbyaresilientgrowthbaselineandmaturingfiscalframework,thoughthisstabilityisincreasinglybeingtestedbyongoingglobalgeopoliticalvolatility.WhilenominalGDPisprojectedtoexpandby10.5%thisfiscal,supportedbyafirmpubliccapexoutlayofINR12.2lakhcrore,externalpressures—particularlyinglobalenergymarkets—poseaprimarysystemicrisk.Inthiscontext,thegovernment’scontinuedfocusonproactivetrade diplomacyto secure preferentialaccess to economiesrepresentingnearlythree-quartersofglobalGDP,alongsideprojectde-riskingviacreditsupport,couldprovideavitalstrategicbufferandthepolicyvisibilityessentialforsustainedinvestmentacrosssectors. India’s Economy in 2025: A Brief Revisit Macro-stability: Sustaining momentum in a "Goldilocks" environment Strategic infrastructure push through public capex Rebound in domestic consumption aided by tax concessions India’s economy in 2025 experienced a "Goldilocks moment"—a rare equilibrium ofhigh growth and record-low inflation. Real GDP is estimated to have expanded by7.4% in FY2026 (revised to 7.6% in February 2026)1, catalysed by a 9.3% surge in theservices sector2and 7.0% growth across manufacturing and construction3. Thisresilience persisted despite a volatile global backdrop and structural softness in theIndian rupee, which depreciated by ~4% during 2025. Although announcementslinked to the U.S.-India trade deal briefly strengthened the INR to 90 against theUSD in early February 2026, recent geopolitical tensions have since outweighedthose gains, pushing the currency back towards the 92-level as of March 2026. Domestic demand fuelled India’s growth momentum in 2025, catalysed by the UnionBudget 2025-26’s landmark income tax reforms and the subsequent GST 2.0rationalisation. By raising the effective zero-tax threshold to INR 12 lakh(inclusive ofrebates), the government exempted nearly 10 million additional taxpayers,significantly boosting middle-class disposable income7. The GST 2.0 regime furtheramplified the impact in September 2025 by shifting a vast array of daily essentialsand mass-market goods to the 5% slab (down from 12% and 18%)8. Consequently, thenation’s private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is projected to haveexpanded by 7.0% in FY2026, hitting 61.5% of GDP—the highest share since FY2012(adjusted to 55.7%1following the February 2026 GDP rebasing to the 2022-23 baseyear, as reflected in Figure 1.2). Throughout 2025, the government maintained a strong emphasis on capitalexpenditure to bridge investment gaps and modernise national infrastructure.The public capex outlay for FY2026 reached ~INR 11.2 lakh crore5, with fundsdirected towards the creation of productive assets. This sust