为AI供能——美国：PJM与并网挑战

Equities The challenge ofgrid bottlenecks United States ◆As a rule,grid bottlenecks can be managedin the US; weseerising capacitythat is enough to meet demand Meike Becker*Senior Global Utilities & Renewables AnalystHSBC Bank plcmeike.becker@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6441 ◆The exception:PJM,the USpowerregion withthemost datacentre applications,takeseightyears to connectnew capacity Charles Swabey*Global Utilities & Renewables AnalystHSBC Bank plccharles.swabey@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 3954 ◆WeoutlinePJM’schallenge and summarise solutions Samantha Hoh, CFASenior Analyst, Clean TechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.samantha.hoh@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 8783 In previous reports, we wrote about anew era of load growth in the USand the roleofdata centres,beneficiaries of that growth in the power value chain,as well aschallengessuch asaffordability.In this note,we address whether long connectionleadtimes hinder AI anddata centregrowth and deep dive into PJM’sconnectionchallenges. Lilyanna Yang, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Oil & Gas, Utilities,PetrochemsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.lilyanna.yang@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 0990 As a rule, gridbottlenecks can be managed in the US Rising interconnection times,for new demand as well assupply,are featuresthatface a constrained grid, and areof abundantinterest. Load growth expectations havenever been higherthanin thepast 25years,andnew generation applications areequallyabundant.Utilities have many ways to managethe situationincludingsortingout speculative applications via upfront cost,usingmodern technology, streamliningprocesses,andbetter staffingandresourcing.Connection times have lengthened,but not prohibitively, and hyperscalers as well as utilities are adapting.Independentsystem operators (ISOs)CAISO and ERCOThave doubled and tripled annualcapacity additions over thepast five years,respectively,and weexpect US capacityadditions to continue to riseto meetgrowingdemand,despiteconstrainedgrids. Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619 Daniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy Transition The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976 Sean McLoughlin*Senior Global Industrials AnalystHSBC Bank plcsean.mcloughlin@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3464 PJM’schallengesshould be addressable PJM,a regional transmission organisation (RTO),accounts forc40% ofUSdatacentre applications,and loadgrowth expectations have risen sharplyinrecentyears,yet capacity additions have stagnated. At fault are lengthy capacity connectiontimelines of eight years (up from 2-4 years previously) due to complex connectionstudies, lengthy case-by-case grid upgrades,andcancelledprojects when facedwithhigh cost. Solutions include (i)modern software and increased resources tospeed upthe interconnection study process;(ii)connectinggenerators on an‘asavailable’ basis to avoid costly and lengthy grid upgrades; (iii) introducingexpeditedapplication pathways;(iv)increasingtop-down grid upgrade planningratherthanacase-by-case approach;(v)usingadvanced transmission technologies(ATTs)–modern hardware and software solutions that avoidcostlyand lengthytraditionalgrid upgrades;(vi)tomanagecost, PJM could continue withcapacitymarket price capsor uselong-term PPAs;and(vii) PJM coulddelegate moreresponsibilities to utilities,states,and data centres. Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6942 * Employed by a non-USaffiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 This is our latest report on the Energy Transition theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBCGlobal Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Powering AI–US: PJM andtheinterconnection challenge ◆As a rule,grid bottlenecks canbe managed in the US; we see risingcapacity that is enough to meet demand ◆The exception: PJM takes eight years to connect new capacity andcapacity prices have risen sharplyas a result ◆Solutions to speed up interconnectionsinclude modern technology,delegation of responsibilities,or curtailment/as available In previous reports, we wrote about anew era of load growth in the USand the roleofdatacentres,beneficiaries of that growth in the power value chain,as well as challengessuch asaffordability. In this note,we address whether long connection leadtimes hinder AI and datacentregrowth and deep dive into PJM’sconnectionchallenges. PJM is the US power region with the largest amount of data centre connections applicationsand has been in the headlines in 2024-26 f