工业自动化：从控制到智能

AI is reshaping the automation valuepyramid into an hourglass. By Michael Schertler, Neil Malik, Adrien Bron,Scott Duncan, and Mike Coxon Industrial Automation: From Control to Intelligence At a Glance Industrial automation has begun a structural shift: Value is moving away from controland toward intelligence. `Profit pools are moving to the top (software, data, AI) and bottom (smart devices) ofthe stack—leaving the core control technologies in the middle under pressure. Legacy advantages are eroding faster than most incumbents expect. By 2030, nearly half of industry revenues are expected to rely on AI-enabled offerings. Industrial automation is no longer about controlling machines—it’s about orchestrating intelligence. For decades, industry leaders followed a clear logic: Improve production and manufacturing efficiency,quality, and safety through increasingly sophisticated control systems. The economics were obvious.Value sat in proprietary high-performance controllers, tightly integrated systems, and the services andupgrades wrapped around a large installed base. What’s changing is not just automation technology,but where economic value is created in the market. That logic is now reaching its limits. What’s changing is not just automation technology, but whereeconomic value is created in the market. What once looked like a pyramid—value concentrated in controlhardware and systems—now looks more like an hourglass, with the middle shrinking and the endsgrowing(see Figure 1). By the end of the decade, more than 80% of industry profit pools are expected tosit at the two ends of the hourglass, with software and data-driven layers accounting for more than half ofthe total industry profit pool, and smart field devices capturing an additional 25% to 30%(see Figure 2). At the top of the stack, value is concentrating in software, data platforms, and AI-enabled workflows.These layers scale faster, carry higher margins, and compound in value as data and use cases accumulate.They increasingly act as the “brain” of industrial operations, translating raw signals into decisions andoutcomes. At the bottom, value is reemerging in smart field devices. Sensors, such as machine visiontechnology, and actuators, such as variable-frequency drives, are no longer passive endpoints. Withembedded intelligence, connectivity, and edge computing, they generate data, execute decisions, andcontinuously improve performance. Industrial Automation: From Control to Intelligence By contrast, the traditional control layer in the middle—programmable logic controllers (PLCs), distributedcontrol systems (DCSs), input/output modules (I/O), supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), andtheir related proprietary software—remains essential but is becoming harder to scale and to differentiate.New entrants are compressing margins by shifting value away from these core controls. By the end of thedecade, most industry profit pools will flow to the two ends of this hourglass, away from the center,according to Bain analysis. The implication is stark: Control still matters, but it is no longer the profitablecore of the industrial automation industry. The shift is clearly visible today in hybrid verticals such aspharmaceuticals and food and beverage, and will soon be in discrete verticals (e.g., automotive) or processverticals (e.g., chemicals). By 2030, nearly half of industry revenues will rely onAI-based solutions, underscoring how value is shiftingtoward intelligence. Industrial Automation: From Control to Intelligence Industrial Automation: From Control to Intelligence Market expansion in billions of dollars, 2025–30 Bain research shows that by 2030, nearly half of industry revenues will rely on AI-based solutions,underscoring how value is shifting toward intelligence. AI-enabled solutions alone could unlock up to$70 billion in new market value by 2030, according to Bain’s 2026 Industrial Automation ExecutiveSurvey(see Figure 3). Eroding advantage Most incumbents understand that the industry is going digital. Fewer appreciate how quickly that shiftundermines the sources of differentiation they have relied on for decades. Three forces are acceleratingthe erosion. First, the operating environment has changed fundamentally. Labor shortages are structural:Manufacturing workforces in developed markets are aging rapidly, with more than 40% of US manufacturingemployment at firms where at least a quarter of workers are over age 55, limiting the industry’s ability torely on human expertise. Supply chains are being reconfigured for resilience, not just efficiency. Sustainability,cybersecurity, and traceability expectations are rising simultaneously. Legacy automation architectures—optimized for stability and cost—were never designed for this level of volatility. Second, the sources of differentiation are moving beyond hardware. Control performance is increasinglytable stakes. Manufacturers expect systems that can adapt, optimize, and