藏于明处：被低估的半导体产业规模
The underestimated size of
A new McKinsey analysis suggests that the semiconductor industry is poised forrecord-breaking growth—but for companies, success will require the right segment-
This article is a collaborative effort by Bill Wiseman, Marc de Jong, and Philipp Pfingstag, with Andreas Jeindl andKlaus Pototzky, representing views from McKinsey’s Semiconductors Practice.
Market analystsmay disagree about specific trends and forecasts, but they typicallyshare the same optimistic attitude about the semiconductor market. According to mostassessments, the semiconductor industry was valued in the range of $630 billion to
This view—although positive—could be a significant underestimation of the semiconductorindustry’s true worth. That’s because traditional estimates, which are largely based on salesvolumes, may partially or completely overlook the value of chips created by OEMs with in-housedesign capabilities, captive chip designers, and fabless operators (for some advanced packaging
Accurate value assessments are more important than ever, as AI is expected to push thesemiconductor industry’s average CAGR well above the 9 percent recorded from 2014 to 2024.To assess semiconductor value more accurately, we analyzed all company types, includingthose in China. Rather than relying on sales volumes, which do not accurately reveal value whencompanies are not directly selling chips on the market, we conducted customized analyses for
The main takeaway: The value of the semiconductor market totaled $775 billion in 2024 andcould reach $1.6 trillion (ranging from $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion) by 2030—figures that farsurpass other estimates. But not all semiconductor companies will benefit equally, becausemost growth will relate to leading-edge chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM). A fewhighly innovative companies will likely account for the most value in these segments, given
One important caveat: We created a range of estimates because so much uncertainty exists, asis the case with all forecasts. In our low-case scenario, for instance, AI demand is weaker thanexpected, translating into lower chip demand. The $1.6 trillion estimate reflects our middle-case,
Reassessing market size
Historically, analysts have determined market size by measuring sales of semiconductordevices to electronics companies from fabless operators, foundries, and integrated devicemanufacturers (IDMs) that both design and manufacture chips. When direct sales data were
For many years, this traditional approach was a fairly accurate barometer of semiconductormarket value because it correctly assessed the value of chips from the IDMs, fabless, and fullyintegrated players that dominated the market. But today, most of the growth is coming fromcaptive chip players, OEMs with in-house design, and fabless companies, and an analysis basedlargely on sales does not fully account for the value of their chips. (For more information on how
Beyond sales-based analysis
Our assessment methodology eliminates some of the gaps inherent in the traditional approach.
Captive chip design companies.Captive chip designers, which are typically hyperscalersoperating data centers for cloud services, create chips for their own internal use. Captivedemand is excluded from sales-based analyses because these semiconductors are not sold onthe open market; instead, they are used in-house to deliver higher-performance cloud services
OEMs with in-house design.Most analysts assess the value of a system on a chip (SoC)designed in-house by looking at COGS alone (mainly by examining payments to foundries for chipmanufacturing). Such analyses overlook estimated internal gross margins—the assumed profitthat a hypothetical supplier would earn from selling chips to the end-product manufacturingunit—even though such margins are considered when quantifying the contributions of IDMs
The evolving semiconductor market
major OEMs that manufacture productswith significant electronics content, suchas high-end smartphones, started shiftingtoward in-house design for applicationprocessors and other differentiatingcomponents. More companies are now
highest of any category. Similarly, fablessoperators had a CAGR of 14 percent, whichtook their revenue share from 24 percentto 41 percent. Most of their growth relatesto demand for leading-edge chips thatenable AI solutions. Captive chip design is
Although integrated device
manufacturershave historically reportedthe most growth in the semiconductorindustry, they had a CAGR of only6 percent from 2014 to 2024. Meanwhile,fully integrated semiconductor
For other business models, growthaccelerated. About ten years ago, a few
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