房价对国内移民的影响：以西班牙为例

The Impact of HousePrices on InternalMigration: The Case ofSpain Ha Nguyen, Ashwini Arulrajhan, Carlo Pizzinelli, and IppeiShibata WP/26/65 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026APR IMF Working PaperEuropean Department The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration: The Case of SpainPrepared by Ha Nguyen, Ashwini Arulrajhan, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Ippei Shibata* Authorized for distribution by Romain DuvalApril 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper studies how house prices shape internal migration across Spain’s provinces andthe implications for the spatial allocation of labor. Using a gravity-style framework, we estimate the causalimpact of destination and origin house prices on bilateral migration flows between 2007-2023. To addressthe potential endogeneity of house prices, we instrument provincial house prices with a Bartik-style predictorof external inflows of foreign migrants, allowing this housing demand shock to have larger price effects inprovinces with tighter land constraints. The instrumental variable (IV) estimates show that housing costsconstitute a significant barrier to internal migrants—a 10 percent increase in destination house pricesreduces inflows by about 4.0 percent, while a 10 percent increase in origin house prices increases outflowsby about 2.8 percent. These push effects of origin house prices are larger for foreign-born and foreign-bornyoung individuals compared to natives. Rental costs have even stronger effects than home sale prices. Asimple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if house prices in high-productivity provinces had notgrown faster than the inflation over 2017-23, about 63,000 more working-age individuals would havemigrated to these provinces, as opposed to just 1,700 (in net terms) in practice. While the direct impliedGDP gain would have been small—about 0.05 percent over this period, such gains would accumulate overtime if regional divergence in house prices were left unaddressed. Furthermore, this estimate does notfactor in the much larger gains from attracting a large number of recent foreign immigrants—not studiedhere—to the most-productive regions. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Nguyen, H., Arulrajhan, A., Pizzinelli, C., & Shibata, I. (2026). “The Impactof House prices on Internal Migration: The Case of Spain” IMF Working Paper 26/65. The Impact of House Prices on Internal Migration:The Case of Spain∗ Ha NguyenIMFAshwini ArulrajhanIMFCarlo PizzinelliIMFIppei ShibataIMF Abstract This paper studies how house prices shape internal migration across Spain’s provinces andthe implications for the spatial allocation of labor. Using a gravity-style framework, we estimatethe causal impact of destination and origin house prices on bilateral migration flows between2007-2023.To address the potential endogeneity of house prices, we instrument provincialhouse prices with a Bartik-style predictor of external inflows of foreign migrants, allowing thishousing demand shock to have larger price effects in provinces with tighter land constraints. Theinstrumental variable (IV) estimates show that housing costs constitute a significant barrier tointernal migrants—a 10 percent increase in destination house prices reduces inflows by about4.0 percent, while a 10 percent increase in origin house prices increases outflows by about 2.8percent. These push effects of origin house prices are larger for foreign-born and foreign-bornyoung individuals compared to natives.Rental costs have even stronger effects than homesale prices.A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if house prices in high-productivity provinces had not grown faster than the inflation over 2017-23, about 63,000 moreworking-age individuals would have migrated to these provinces, as opposed to just 1,700 (innet terms) in practice. While the direct implied GDP gain would have been small—about 0.05percent over this period, such gains would accumulate over time if regional divergence in houseprices were left unaddressed.Furthermore, this estimate does not factor in the much largergains from attracting a large number of recent foreign immigrants—not studied here—to themost-productive regions. 1Introduction Internal migration plays a central role in the efficient allocation of labor within countries. By al-lowing workers to move from lower-productivity and higher-unemployment regions to areas withbetter labor market opportunities, migration can support aggregate productivity growth, r