全球酒店与邮轮：人工智能....迟早会到来——机器人会度假吗？

Global Hotels and Cruise: Artificial Intelligence.... Sooner or Later- do bots take vacations? This report is part of a global series in which our analystsconsider what their sector will looklike by the early 2030s when AI has been fully integrated and commercialized. There arebroadly two schools of thought running through our research on AI globally. The “Sooner”camp generally believes that Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer for their sector, rightnow. The “Later” camp believes that Artificial Intelligence is a game-changer for theirindustry… just not yet. In this series, each analyst is declaring their view on the timing andnature of AI disruption in their sector and what that implies for warranted valuation today. Aswe have written heavily on AI and Online travel, this note focuses on the less discussed hoteland cruise subsectors. Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Cruise is well insulated from risk, and AI may help make the product moreapproachable.Cruise is a complex, high ticket item, requiring customers to commit to Sabrina Blanc+33 1 42 13 47 32sabrina.blanc@bernsteinsg.com almost every aspect of their trip, with little room to opt out. As such, advice is highly valuedby customers - in 2025 just under half of all cruises were sold via offline travel agents, andcommissions are a material cost item for the industry. AI has the potential to transformthis; AI can now quickly inform customers about the various cruise brands, price points,entertainment options, restaurants, amenities, and ports, while offering reviews left by othersimilar guests. As AI tools become more widespread the value of travel agents in cruisewill likely diminish. Cruise customers are almost 30% more likely than non-cruisers to useAI for travel planning / inspiration, and cruise has the highest direct penetration of onlinebooking (64%) of any form of travel. AI tools may also help cruise companies target guestsfor promotions on the sale / pre-sale of onboard upsell items (e.g. excursions, specialtydining, internet). AI offers a meaningful opportunity to cut distribution costs, allow newguests to become informed about the product, and improve onboard sales. Benefits to hotels will need to accrue to hotel owners for brands to benefit.AI hasthe potential to meaningfully change the hotel distribution landscape. With the narrowingand tailoring of search results, and the growing direct distribution links with hotels andAI platforms, it seems likely the distribution landscape will shift to favor brand’s directdistribution. Brands strong customer / loyalty data combined with AI may also allow forhyper-personalization, helping to differentiate the consumer experience, while incrementalopportunities remain for AI to improve back of house efficiency (e.g. improved laborscheduling, customer support). If brands can improve the economics for their ownersthrough lower distribution costs, higher ADRs, and lower operating costs, brands will seebenefits from NUG, higher RevPAR growth, and potentially scope to ultimately increaseroyalty rates. Distribution changes could be meaningful.Distribution costs are the clearestopportunity financially, and while shifts are likely to be gradual the ultimate LT impactcould be meaningful. If cruise companies see intermediary penetration / commission ratesconverge to penetration levels seen in other travel sectors this could be a 15-30% EPSimpact (more meaningful than revenue opportunities which we see as a low-mid single digitpotential upside). Similarly for hotel groups, if they can cut out half of the loyalty distributioncosts, and capture it within their royalty fees it would be a 10-20% revenue tailwind. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Overall, both cruise and hotel companies stand to gain from AI, with both closer to asset ownership than being pure playdistributors. For cruise the risk is clearly lowest - the capital intensive, logistically challenging, and highly manual process of cruising is veryunlikely to see any negative impact. For hotels, we still see the risk as low given the distribution advantages of brands, along withtechnology, procurement, brand standards, and long contractual obligations. Cruise also has the clearest opportunity, with the prevalence and high cost of offline intermediaries, and the scope for AI toreplicate the value of these intermediaries, offering a clear opportunity for lower distribution costs, which will directly flow tocruise companies. Asset light hotel groups can also benefit, and have a clear focus on direct distribution via AI powered partnersinstead of costly OTAs and saving costs via AI tools, while hyper-personalization has the potential to boost RevPAR. However,cost benefits particularly must first accrue to hotel owners, which hotel groups will then need to turn i