比亚迪：整合协同效应——垂直整合的力量

Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Price Target BYD: Bringing synergies together — Power of Vertical Integration BYD released its FY 2025 earnings Friday evening (BYD: Stronger mix and overseas gains,yet Q4 profitability lags), followed by an earnings presentation this morning in Hong Kong. Wehave updated our model following a review of the financials and future prospects. Reviving solar for cheaper, faster, and more scalable EV charging.Chairman WangChuan-fu opened his remarks by highlighting BYD’s “Three Green Visions” — solar, energystorage, and EVs. This marks the first time in years that solar has featured prominently in hispublic comments. We interpret the renewed focus as a signal of deeper integration acrossBYD’s solar, ESS, and EV charging. The company’s newest “flash charging” technology —70% charge in 5 minutes and 97% in 9 minutes — builds on its vertically integrated ESS.Adding solar generation could further enhance BYD’s charging ecosystem by providing low-cost, on-site electricity generation, lowering reliance on grid power and transmission costs.Greater charging convenience and cost efficiency would, in turn, support faster EVadoption and strengthen BYD’s competitive positioning. On outlook, Q1 remains challenging.BYD’s 2026 2M sales volume is down 36% yoy, andwe expect Q1 volumes to decline by roughly one-third yoy. We estimate Q1 net profit pervehicle could fall to RMB 3-4k (vs. RMB 8.8k in Q1 25 and RMB 6.8k in Q4 25), driven bylower scale and cost inflation, partially offset by stronger overseas sales and improved mix.Volumes should begin to recover from Q2 as deliveries of new flash-charging models ramp,with a more favorable base effect from Q3. Near term, the company faces battery capacityconstraints, though we expect investors to look through Q4 and Q1 softness. Sentimentremains positive given BYD’s continued overseas momentum supported by high oil prices.The company is also making progress in ESS, which remains underappreciated by the marketin our view. As a potential catalyst, BYD plans to unveil its ADAS upgrade in May. While ADAShas not been BYD’s strength, any improvement would be incrementally positive. Investment Implications We rate BYD Outperformwith price targets for1211.HK at HK$136.00(Old: HK$ 130.00)and for002594.CH at RMB124.00(Old: RMB 120.00)based on rolled forwardSOTP assumptions that correlates to 18x 2027E P/E. DETAILS RELATED RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS 26 Mar 2026 - Global Autos: High oil prices reshape demand (over time) — Boost for Chinese EVs and Japanese hybrids,Headwinds for U.S. gas-guzzlers9 Mar 2026 - BYD: 1,000km in 9 minutes Reality Check — Shenzhen trip takeaways5 Mar 2026 - BYD: 97% in 9 minutes – Blade Battery 2.0 and 1.5 MW Flash Charging set new speed record13 Jan 2026 - BYD: An Underappreciated Global Battery Leader18 Nov 2025 - BYD vs. Toyota: Can BYD become the next Toyota?19 Mar 2025 - BYD: Charging ahead — Top 6 questions on the latest 10C ultra fast-charging technology29 May 2024 - Electric Vehicles: The Revival of Plug-in Hybrids — BYD to take on with 2,100-km drive.16 May 2024 - BYD: A Deep Dive into BYD's Cost Advantage and Sustainability OTHER KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM EARNINGS BRIEFING 1.5MW flash charging to support demand, though near-term deliveries are constrained by 2nd-gen blade batterycapacity.Chairman Wang Chuan-fu expressed strong confidence in BYD’s 1.5MW flash-charging technology, noting itspotential to materially enhance user experience and drive vehicle demand. Beyond faster charging, the new stations featurelighter cables and seamless payment, together offering a clear user-experience advantage. Management believes thistechnology can help BYD convert the remaining c.50% of domestic ICE “holdouts.” Store traffic has already increased, with newflash-charging models seeing stronger-than-expected demand. BYD also highlighted the high technical and capex barriers forpeers to replicate the technology, particularly given the complexity of retrofitting production lines. The main near-term bottleneck is capacity for second-generation blade batteries, which remain in shortage as the companyis in the process of converting production lines for manufacturing first-generation batteries to second generation. Productionis expected to ramp by 30–50k units per month beginning in March.Domestically, BYD maintains its 2026 guidance of3.7-3.8mn units, and together with c.1.5mn units overseas, total volume guidance stands at 5.2-5.3mn units. Reiterating 1.5mn overseas sales target for 2026, with potential upside if oil prices stay elevated.Overseas marketsare becoming increasingly important to BYD’s growth. Management noted that the recent rise in oil prices has already fuelledstrong EV adoption abroad, with sales growing more than tenfold in Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines. Other marketdata also point t