基于地方的绿色产业政策有效吗？《通胀削减法案》的证据（英）

Policy Research Working Paper Is Place-Based Green Industrial Policy Effective? Evidence from the Inflation Reduction ActPublic Disclosure Authorized Joep KeuzenkampJacopo MazzaBob RijkersKatherine Stapleton A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11337 Abstract Is place-based green industrial policy effective? This paperexamines the Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Communityprovisions, which provide spatially targeted incentives forrenewable energy investment. Using a difference-in-dif-ferences design with investment and job vacancy data, it a 144% increase relative to its counterfactual level. Windinvestment shows no response. Solar employment gains aremodest and wind employment is unaffected. These findingssuggest place-based incentives can stimulate green invest- The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Is Place-Based Green Industrial Policy Effective? Joep Keuzenkamp∗Katherine Stapleton JEL Codes:H81; J23; Q42; Q48; R11. Keywords:Place-based industrial policy; Inflation Reduction Act; Renewable energy in-vestment; Regional economic development; Labor market impacts. Acknowledgements:We thank seminar and conference participants at Utrecht University, the UK Network forEnvironmental Economists’ Applied Environmental Economics Conference, and the Third Dutch Environmental andResource Economics Day for useful comments.We also benefitted from feedback from Carolyn Fischer, StephaneHallegatte, Somik Lall, Tristan Reed, Joseph Rebello and Daria Taglioni. This paper has been partly supported by theUmbrella Facility for Trade trust fund (financed by the governments of the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, 1Introduction Regional economic disparities have deepened in advanced economies, leaving “left-behind” areas with population decline, stagnant employment, social distress, andrising support for populism (Austin et al., 2018; Baccini & Weymouth, 2021; Case& Deaton, 2015; Dijkstra et al., 2020; Lee et al., 2018; Rodr´ıguez-Pose et al., 2021;Rodrik, 2021). Many of these already vulnerable regions are also particularly exposedto labor market disruption from the green transition (Castellanos & Heutel, 2024; Shang, 2023; Vona et al., 2019). The coincidence of these challenges has contributed toa surge in place-based green industrial policies1designed to promote a more equitabletransition, support vulnerable regions, and build political support for decarbonization The relevance of these challenges extends beyond advanced economies. Many de-veloping countries face larger regional disparities, greater climate vulnerability, andweaker labor demand. Several are exploring place-based incentives to attract green in-vestment to lagging regions, but it remains unclear whether such policies can generate The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of August 2022 is a salient example of place-based, green industrial policy. As the largest climate policy in U.S. history, it com-bines ambitious clean energy subsidies with explicit place-based incentives, EnergyCommunity provisions.These provisions operate by offering additional bonus taxcredits to renewable energy projects located in designated Energy Communities, This paper investigates whether the IRA’s place-based Energy Community incen-tives have stimulated investment in wind and solar generation, created green jobs,and shifted political preferences.We focus specifically on these place-based provi-sions, not the broader IRA, to isolate the effects of targeted regional incentives. Ouranalysis covers the period from before the IRA began in August 2022 to the end of2024, capturing the entire period during which the policy operated under credible To identify the impact of the Energy Community incentives, we implement difference-in-differences comparisons between Energy Communities (treated areas) and non-Energy Communities (control areas) before and after the introduction of the IRA.We compile census-tract-level investment data from the Clean Investment Monitor(2018–2024) to measure renewable investment.For employment, we start with theQuarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to capture county-level trends;however, these (and other conventional labor market) data are not ideally suited forexamining the evolution of renewables employment because they either aggregatemultiple occupations, making it hard to isolate renewable energy jobs, or report too We find that the Energy Community bonus substantially increases solar invest-ment in the two years following