行业研究公司研究宏观策略财报招股书会议纪要 Token 低空经济十五五 AIGC 大模型

Overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26

2026-03-30 Ji SHI,Wenjing Do,Austin Liang 招银国际秋穆

BYD 2025年第四季度业绩不及预期，主要受毛利率和财务成本影响，但公司认为缩短应付账款天数带来的现金流压力可能已缓解。海外市场销售预计将成为2026财年积极因素，受地缘政治紧张局势推动的油价上涨利好海外新能源汽车、光伏和储能电池业务。维持“买入”评级，目标价HK$125/RMB125，基于2027年预期市盈率23倍。预计2026-2027年净利润同比增长11%/21%，达到363亿/438亿人民币。关键风险包括销量或利润低于预期，以及行业估值下调。

Overseas sales could be a positive surprise in FY26

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