专家电话会：电动车未来数月应重拾市场动能

China Auto/EV 25 March 2026 EQUITY: AUTOS & AUTO PARTS Expert call: EVs should regain market momentum in months ahead Research Analysts China Autos & Auto Parts Quick Note Joel Ying, CFA - NIHKjoel.ying@nomura.com+852 2252 2153 On 23 March, we hosted an intelligent vehicle market expert (Mr Liu Qing) with extensiveexperience in China’s car sales market; he served as a general manager with an autosales company in Suzhou. The discussion centered around the latest market situation and Global EV Batteries & MaterialsEthan Zhang - NIHKethan.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2157 According to the expert: (1) the EV market recovery is being led by subsidies, newtechnology upgrades, and concerns about fuel price; (2) models with feature upgrades buthigher prices are likely to be the main theme in 2026, while EV penetration mightrecover/accelerate in the near term, considering the uncertainties surrounding fuel priceoutlook; (3) the slow pace of new model launches this year can be mainly attributed to Given the order trend has recorded a sequential improvement since the final week of Feb-2026, based on our industry checks, we expect EV players to have better opportunities toregain market share in the near term, especially considering the uncertainties surroundingglobal fuel prices due to geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, considering OEMs’ first priority isinventory clearance, we expect a relatively slow pace of new model launches for mass-market players in 2026, and those who are able to clear inventory ahead of peers, might Reasons behind recovery since CNY holidays: subsidies, ultra-fast charging amidhigher fuel prices, and smart-driving upgrades According to Mr. Liu, the recovery in market momentum post CNY holidays can be mainlyattributed to: (1)The implementation of national trade-in/scrapping subsidy post CNY holidays,and the introduction of local government subsidy programs(in the range of CNY3-8k) covering more than 20 provinces in the first batch with the second batch also startingrecently, which might last until end-May in some provinces. After the holiday season, over 2)The blade battery 2.0 launched by BYD:After the event, in-store traffic for BYD hasrisen significantly while traffic in Geely and Leapmotor’s 4S stores has also increased 3)The smart driving update from OEMs:After the launch of XPENG’s VLA 2.0 andHuawei’s 896-line LiDAR, there have been increased store visits by customers to book atest drive and to check and experience the new functions. Overall, it is still BYD’s Likely market trends heading into the next few months: feature upgrades with priceincrease likely to be the key theme in 2026; and EV penetration could accelerateThe expert mentioned during the call that, the latest models launched by OEMs (e.g. the Sealion 06 from BYD, P7 from XPENG and new SU7 from Xiaomi) come with additionalnew features, such as blade battery 2.0, VLA2.0 and other feature upgrades, as well as Production Complete: 2026-03-24 18:03 UTC increased prices (considering the BOM cost increase), which is the right direction the With major mass-market players, including BYD, Geely and Leapmotor, likely to release abatch of their new models in the next two months, Mr. Liu expects NEV shipments torecover to 90% of last year levels in Mar-2026E, and could further improve in Apr-2026E.Considering the ongoing uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation and thereforefuel price, the expert believes NEVs may have a chance to increase their market share Business progress from OEMs’ side: slower upgrade trend due mainly to inventory;promotions like 3-5 year fiscal plans, insurance and other subsidies matter the most Considering that OEMs are upgrading their pipeline slower than in previous years, theexpert noted that it is mainly due to inventory, owing to the demand weakness seen duringthe past few months. For mass-market players, the expert believes that generally they stillhave on average nearly two months of inventory on dealers’ side. Therefore, it will be alonger inventory clearance period for the industry, and only after the clearance is done,new models can be launched, according to the expert. Based on this assumption, theexpert believes that demand for 1H26E will be more dependent on government’ssupportive policies and OEMs’ promotions, while 2H26E demand might be moredependent on the competitiveness of new models with new features, such as ultra-fastcharging, larger size battery, and smart-driving upgrades. Talking about OEMs’ promotions, the expert mentioned that since mid-March, subsidy forEV purchase tax is theoretically not allowed as it works against the national policy. On theother hand, 3-5 year zero interest fiscal plan has become very important to dealers.Meanwhile, OEMs/dealers are also providing subsidies for insurance, trade-in/scrapping Key players head-to-head in the market: BYD will likely have advantage with itsblade battery 2.0, while Geely should also enjoy solid growth aheadLook