全球人口变化：对房地产有何启示？

WORDSPAUL TOSTEVIN GLOBALDEMOGRAPHICSHIFTS: WHATARE THEIMPLICATIONSFOR REALESTATE? As Generation Z comes of age and a growingglobal population embraces new ways of livingand working, demand for real estate is changingand the mix of uses is becoming more fluid million people by 2030 – putting pressure on existinginfrastructure and housing. The task ahead is not merely toimprove infrastructure but also to add more towns and citiesto the existing 4,400. In this respect, two key governmentinitiatives, ‘Make in India’ and ‘Smart Cities Mission’, formanufacturing and urban development respectively, now gainunique significance.” In November 2022, the global population reached eightbillion. This milestone was described by UN Secretary-General António Guterres as “an occasion to celebratediversity and advancements while considering humanity’sshared responsibility for the planet”. In the same year, India,with 1.4 billion people, overtook China as the world’s mostpopulous country.Over the next 10 years, India’s population is set to be the fastest growing in the world, adding 100 million people.Meanwhile, China’s population is expected to tip intolong-term decline, having fallen last year for the first time in60 years.India’s growing population will spur domestic and An ageing worldThis epoch-defining shift is emblematic of wider demographic changes around the globe. The developed world is ageing, asare China and many countries in South America and theMiddle East. This means the balance of population growth isshifting to Asia and Africa.At the same time, Generation Z – those born between 1997 outbound demand in all sectors of its already burgeoning realestate market. “It is important to understand India from theviewpoint of rising urbanisation, as well as its changingage-group mix,” says Arvind Nandan, Managing Director ofResearch and Consultancy, at Savills India. “India’s urbanpopulation is growing rapidly, and is expected to pass 600 and 2012 – is coming of age and has become the largestgeneration on Earth.This has profound implications for real estate and cities. The most in-demand hubs are changing, as the mix of uses forreal estate evolves and becomes more fluid.All of this is happening in a post-pandemic context. Covid-19 changed our world, catalysing trends towards hybridworking, online retail and digital communication. As well ascreating a need for large data centres, these trends are alteringworkplaces, homes and city centres.At the same time, the pandemic has compounded the growing emphasis on environmental, social and governance(ESG) factors among investors and the general public. Urbanisation and populationThe world’s changing demographics go hand in hand with urbanisation. Today, about 55 per cent of the world’spopulation live in towns and cities, and urbanisation isexpected to reach 68 per cent by 2050. COVID-19CHANGED OURWORLD,CATALYSINGTRENDSTOWARDSHYBRIDWORKING,ONLINE RETAILAND DIGITALCOMMUNICATION PAVLOS GENNIMATASMANAGING DIRECTOR,EUROPEAN LIVING,HINES EUROPE Demographic changes aretransforming the housing sectoracross Europe. In the last twodecades, the European population has grown by 34 million. At thesame time, Europeans are having fewerchildren and starting families later in life,resulting in a lower birth rate and a 30%growth in single-person households. This hasled to increased demand for smallerapartments. In response to this, our schemescombine more green spaces, high-endwork-from-home amenities, integratedtechnology and a focus on ESG. From a macroeconomic standpoint, whileunemployment rates in Europe have reacheda record low since 2008, the cost of buying ahome has increased by 45% since 2013. Incombination with the rising cost of living, ithas meant the average age for a first-timebuyer has shifted from 31 in 2013 to 34 today,further increasing the demand for rentalproducts. As such, we are incorporating asubstantial component of attainable housing,such as Il Trotto, a mixed-use scheme in aconsolidated residential area in Milan. This is a profound change – until 2009, more people lived inrural areas than urban ones – and one that must be carefullymanaged if we are to protect our imperilled planet. Whileoccupying less than two per cent of the world’s total land area,cities produce 80 per cent of gross domestic product but also70 per cent of carbon emissions.Much new and future urbanisation is occurring in Furthermore, Generation Z tends toprioritise travel, convenience and city living,with 1.2 million digital nomads in Europetoday. Students, particularly internationals,are following suit, as academic enrolment iscountercyclical and tends to increase duringeconomic uncertainty. At the other end ofthe age spectrum, rental demand is alsobeing driven by the senior population. Lifeexpectancy has significantly increased, withpeople over 65 expected to account for 30%of the population in the next 25 years. developing markets. Nine countries will be responsible for halfof po