评估美国汽车工业不断发展的全球竞争力

STEPHEN EZELL AND MEGHAN OSTERTAG |MARCH 2026 To win the techno-economic competition with China, America must be able to assess the factorsimpacting the global competitiveness of its advanced-technology industries. Using the autoindustry as a template, U.S. competitiveness has faltered considerably. KEY TAKEAWAYS Reaching its zenith in the 1950s, the U.S. auto industry has been in a period of declinesince at least the mid-1960s when it began to face import competition from leanerJapanese and European competitors. While the Big Three automakers—General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler—accounted for 92percent of domestic auto share in 1965, this share would fall by half, to 46 percent, by2015, and to 38 percent by 2024. The U.S. location quotient for autos (which compares how much an industry contributestoa nation’s economy as it does to the global economy) fell from 0.92 in 1995 to 0.54 in2022, meaning the U.S. auto industry is 45 percent smaller than the global average. Today, the U.S. auto industry face new challenges from low-cost Chinese EV producers,increasing offshoring of production to Mexico, and the emergence of a host of newvehicle technologies, from autonomy to electrification. From 1995 to 2022, China’s share of global automotive vehicle output skyrocketedeightfold, from 3 to 25 percent, while the U.S. share slid from 23 to 14 percent. In 2007, cars sold in the United States contained 38 percent U.S.- or Canadian-madecontent on average; that portion declined to 18 percent by 2023. U.S. auto competitiveness today is like the situation in the 1980s and 1990s all over again—as intense Chinese EV competition and technological change roil the industry—only thistime it cannot take 10–15 years to adapt if it’s to survive. CONTENTS Key Takeaways ................................................................................................................. 1Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 3The Importance of the U.S. Auto industry ............................................................................ 4What Happened to the Once Globally Dominant U.S. Auto Industry?....................................... 7The Decline of the Big Three U.S. Automakers ..................................................................... 8The Evolution of the Auto Industry of the United States ...................................................... 12International Comparisons of U.S. Auto Industry Competitiveness......................................... 20Location Quotient, Global Value Added, and Global Market Share ..................................... 20International Vehicle Production and Sales ..................................................................... 23International Trade Measures ........................................................................................ 26International Productivity Comparisons .......................................................................... 28Innovation Indicators ................................................................................................... 29Assessing U.S. Auto Industry Competitiveness Since 2010.................................................. 34The Rise of Mexico ...................................................................................................... 34China’s Dominance in EVs ............................................................................................ 37How Did China Come to Dominate EV Innovation and Production? ................................. 37China’s EV Export Dominance Leading to Growing Market Share in Third Countries.......... 40Future Challenges for the U.S. Auto Industry .................................................................. 42Technological Challenges .......................................................................................... 42Market Challenges.................................................................................................... 43Summary ....................................................................................................................... 44Endnotes ....................................................................................................................... 46 INTRODUCTION If the United States is to win in the ever-intensifying techno-economic competition againstChina, the federal government is going to have to cultivate the ability to conduct deep andcomprehensive industry-level analysis into the health of its national economic power industries.1That means understanding every facet of industrial health, domestically and internationally.Domestically, it entails understanding the extent and change in industry output and value added,productivity and quality levels, capital and research and development (R&D) intensity, wage andemployment trends, and measures of product and process innovation capacity. Internationally, i