在肯尼亚整合可变可再生能源（英）2026

Integrating VariableRenewable Energy Key challenges and strategic priorities INTERNATIONAL ENERGY The IEA examines the fullspectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy, IEAMember IEAAssociationcountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFrance ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndia This publication and any mapincluded herein are withoutprejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory,to the delimitation of The EuropeanCommission also Acknowledgements, contributors This study was prepared by the Electricity Systems and Markets (ESM) Divisionin the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security (EMS). The study was led and The main authors of this study are (in alphabetical order) NoéAussant, GyuriCho,GraceHenry and JinilKim.Key contributions were from SyrineElAbed and Hyejeong Lee provided essential support. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the Energy Markets and Security Directorateprovidedvaluable feedback and overall guidance.Valuable comments andfeedback were provided by other senior management within the IEA. In particular, Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office for their help inproducing the report and website materials, particularly to Jethro Mullen, andAstrid Dumond, Wonjik Yang, Liv Gaunt, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Poeli The IEA would like to thank the Kenya Ministry of Energy and Petroleum and theEnergy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) for their support throughoutthis study, particularly, Eng. IsaacKiva, Eng. Kihara Mungai and Daniel Kiptoo The report was informed by insights gathered during a workshop on “Kenya'spower system needs” held in Nairobi on 22 October 2025. The IEA would like to Table of contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5Context .................................................................................................................................... 7Open access ......................................................................................................................... 10Flexibility and storage needs ................................................................................................ 14Ancillary services .................................................................................................................. 18Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 22Abbreviations and acronyms................................................................................................. 24 Introduction Kenya operates a power system based onrenewable energy, with growing electricity Kenya is a leader in expanding electricity access among East African countries,increasing the rate from 37% in 2013 to 79% in 2025. The country is on track to achieve universal access by 2030, and urban electrification has already reached100%. Kenya has set an ambitious target in itsVision 2030of becoming a newly Kenya has made significant progress in utilising its renewable energy resourcesfor power generation, with nearly 90% of its electricity mix derived from renewableenergy sources. The country has over 3.5 GW of installed generation capacity,which is dominated by renewable energy sources. In 2025, geothermal accounted The rapid development of variable generationand policy changes call for actions to ensure Kenya's power sector is undergoing significant transformation, creating newopportunities and challenges for the sector. Historically, progress in renewablegeneration was guided by a feed-in tariff (FiT) policy programme, which since 2021has been evolving into an auction scheme under the Renewable Energy Auction Beyond contributing significantly to energy development goals, the increase invariable renewable energy (VRE) capacity has also created challenges relating to system stability, reliability and resilience. This increases the need for energystorage systems and enhanced ancillary services, which can provide grid services This report explores the key challenges that lie ahead for the Kenyan electricitysystem and how open access, flexibility and ancillary services can support the Context Understanding Kenya’s level of solar PV and wind integration is essential foridentifying the operational challenges the system faces today and the adaptationsrequired over the next decade. The IEA divides the integration of VRE intosix phases, reflecting the increasing system impacts of expanding solar PV and Phases 1 to 3 represent the early stages of VRE integration, when solar PV andwind have limited impact on system operation. Challenges at these stages cantypically be addressed through improved use of existing assets or enhancedoperationalpractices.Phases 4 to 6 correspond to higher levels