全球软件：供应链软件即将到来的AI超级周期

Global Software: The coming AI supercycle in Supply ChainSoftware We view supply chain software as one of the most compelling multi-year investmentthemes.Global supply chains are being rebuilt in real time in response to geopolitical shocks,inflation, ESG requirements, and rising customer expectations. Supply chain management(SCM) software has become the digital backbone of this redesign, and AI is accelerating theshift from modernization to full-stack reinvention - driving strong growth across software,services, and cloud infrastructure. Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com SCM is among the fastest-growing enterprise software categories, set to double from$33bn in 2024 to $66bn in 2029 (CAGR +c.15%), creating $217bn of cumulative revenueopportunity over 2026–29. Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com AI is emerging as the new operating system for supply chains. By ingesting real-timesignals - from macro trends to logistics data - AI enables increasingly autonomous planning,inventory, and transport decisions. Financial gains are significant: lower working capital,higher service levels, and fewer disruptions. By 2030, c.80% of SCM spend is expected tobe AI-enabled. Deep integration and high switching costs reinforce this as a durable, high-return category. Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Cloud migration adds another structural tailwind. With SaaS growing c.23% annually,cloud penetration is set to rise from 52% in 2024 to 74% by 2029 - one of the largestremaining upgrade cycles in enterprise software and a major monetization vector for AI. Kiran Shah+44 20 3547 1533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com Themarket remains fragmented(Top 3:38%;Top 5:45%)with meaningfulconsolidation potential. SAP leads with c.25% share, more than 2.5x Oracle. M&Amomentum is building as vendors move toward end-to-end platforms and seek differentiatedAI capabilities. Keith Murray+1 917 344 8435keith.murray@bernsteinsg.com Pricing models are evolvingas outcome-based approaches link revenues directly tomeasurable value creation - such as reduced inventory or transport spend. This acceleratesAI monetization and expands the addressable market, though it introduces revenue variabilityand near-term margin pressure. Hybrid models (subscription + success-fee) provide balancein revenue predictability, and support stronger retention and long-term profitability. Within this landscape, we viewSAPas the best-positioned beneficiary, supported by itsend-to-end suite, deep ERP integration, and the S/4 migration acting as a built-in SCMupsell engine. High switching costs and long-standing customer relationships reinforce itsleadership. Oracleoffers, in our view, underappreciated AI-driven SCM upside through tight Fusion ERPintegration, leading transport management capabilities, and a unified data architecture thatstrengthens AI performance. ITservices firms will be major beneficiaries as they execute complex AI-enabledtransformations and influence platform decisions. We viewCapgeminias particularly well-placed, backed by an SCM-heavy client base and expanding Intelligent Operations offerings aligned with outcome-driven, AI-enabled supply chain programs. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We reiterate our Outperform ratings and price targets on Capgemini, on SAP (co-covered by M. Moerdler and R. Nguyen) and onOracle and Microsoft (covered by M. Moerdler). Table Of Contents Investment summary...............................................................................................................................................................................................................5Understanding the supply chain and its strategic importance................................................................................................................................ 7Supply chain fundamentals: what it is and why it matters.................................................................................................................................7Key trends transforming the supply chain market................................................................................................................................................9AI in the supply chain................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10Supply Chain Management software - The digital backbone of global operations....................................................................................... 11Essential overview: core capabilities, drivers, and challenges...................................................................................................................... 1