2026年政府工作报告要点解析

Economics China Key takeaways from the Government Work Report ◆As we expected, China set a more moderate GDP growth target (4.5%-5%),similar fiscal levels, and added new financing policy tools Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 ◆China aims to boost domestic demand while balancing trade, anti-involutioncampaign to speed up too Erin XinSenior Economist, GreaterChinaThe Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆Key15thFYP plan targets unveiledas well,with goals to“maintain reasonableGDP growth”, likelymeaning a minimum pace of 4.2% in the coming 5 years Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650 Facts Premier Li Qiang delivered the GovernmentWork Reportat the opening session of the NPC on 5 March. Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Implications Targets in line with our expectations Chinaset aslightly lower GDP target(4.5%-5%), but it iscombined with still punchy policy support, mainly eyeing on boostingdomestic demand. The lower growth targetandpolicy support arein line with our expectations as wehighlightedinour preview(26Feb).Thegovernmenthas laid out stillproactive fiscal policy supportatsimilarlevelsas last yearwith theofficial fiscal deficitunchanged at4% of GDP.Monetary policy maintains a“moderately loose”stance with RRR cuts andinterest cuts to be considered(weexpect50bpand 20bp,respectively,this year).Also, added quota for new financing policy tools were also unveiledatRMB800bn, up fromRMB500bn last year. 15thFiveYearPlan TheGovernment WorkReport also highlightedkey development targets in the 15thFive Year Plan(table 2),thefulldetails ofwhichwill also be reviewed during thisNPC.Longer-term growthaims to“keep growth at a reasonable range”,thesame as in the 14thFYP,though considering the goals to doublethe levels of per capitaGDP by 2035 (reiterated in thisGovernment WorkReport), thissuggests a minimumgrowth pace of 4.2% per annum. The keytask for 2026:Boostingdomestic demand, both consumption andinvestment On the consumption side,both direct support and structural measureswill be used. Whiletheconsumer goods trade-insubsidyprogram was reduced toRMB250bn(from RMB300bn last year, which drove up RMB2.6trn of retail sales),there will now be aRMB100bntool for fiscal-financialcoordinationset up togotowardsloan interest subsidies, financing guarantees and riskcompensation. This suggestsa widening ofsupportfor consumptionbeyondjust goods, but also more support forservicesandproviders. Fiscal reforms tomovesometaxes closer towardsconsumption as opposed toproductionwill also beimplemented.We expect someof the revenues to be shared with local governments.Whilea broader scope of productssubject to consumption taxmay posesomehit for demand, it willencouragelocal governments to align their economic structuresto be based moreonpromoting high qualityconsumption demand as opposed toexacerbatingovercapacitychallenges. Structural measures toboost consumption willstill need tobeaccelerated.This will be criticalgiven China aims tosignificantlyincrease in the share of consumption as proportion of GDP(40% in 2024 based on official statistics)as part of its 15thFYP,thoughnospecifictarget wasunveiled todayin the Government Work Report. To achievethis,we thinkimprovedcoverage of social welfare,based on permanent residence,pension reformas well asdevelopment of the new urbanisation plan will be implemented. Investment has been the key laggardin theeconomylast year, falling by an unprecedented 3.8%.Encouragingly, therecontinuestobe punchy fiscal support including RMB200bn for equipment upgrading(unchanged from 2025), as well as more transfers from thecentral government budget to promote investment (RMB755bnfor 2026 vs RMB735bn last year)and RMB800bn from special CGBsfor national strategic goals(unchanged from 2025).Wethink the use of new financing policy tools, which got a larger bump, will alsohelpto promotemore private sectorparticipation.Considering large scale projectsare also being unveiled in the details of the 15thFYP, the still punchy financing support will help to drive up investment this year, particularly in infrastructure. Technology innovationand the development of newproductive forces China is doubling down on innovation and technology as the cornerstone of its high-quality growth strategy. TheGovernmentWorkReport underscores a robust commitment to strengtheningoriginal innovation, driving breakthroughs in critical core technologies andin frontier fields such as AI,cloud computing,quantum computing, biomanufacturing,future energy, semiconductor development,embodied AI,brain-computer interfacesand 6G. The policy tone aligns with the draft proposal for the 15th Five-Year Plan,whichaims toestablishingChinaas a global leader inoriginal innovation. To achieve that, the report pledges that R&D