No dividend interruption? How do the digital divide and task differences divide GenAI's global influence?

Authors / Paweł Gmyrek, Mariana Viollaz, Hernan Winkler © International Labour Organization 2026 Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. See:https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The user is allowed to reuse, share (copy and redistrib-ute), adapt (remix, transform and build upon the original work) as detailed in the licence. Theuser must clearly credit the ILO as the source of the material and indicate if changes were made Attribution– The user must indicate if changes were made and must cite the work as follows:Gmyrek, P., Viollaz, M., Winkler, H.Disruption without Dividend?: How the Digital Divide and TaskDifferences Split GenAI’s Global Impact. ILO Working Paper 166. Geneva: International Labour Translations– In case of a translation of this work, the following disclaimer must be added along with the attribution:This is a translation of a copyrighted work of the International LabourOrganization (ILO). This translation has not been prepared, reviewed or endorsed by the ILO and shouldnot be considered an official ILO translation. The ILO disclaims all responsibility for its content and ac- Adaptations– In case of an adaptation of this work, the following disclaimer must be addedalong with the attribution:This is an adaptation of a copyrighted work of the International LabourOrganization (ILO). This adaptation has not been prepared, reviewed or endorsed by the ILO and should Third-party materials– This Creative Commons licence does not apply to non-ILO copyright ma-terials included in this publication. If the material is attributed to a third party, the user of such Any dispute arising under this licence that cannot be settled amicably shall be referred to arbitra-tion in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International For details on rights and licensing, contact:rights@ilo.org. For details on ILO publications anddigital products, visit:www.ilo.org/publns. ISBN 9789220431986 (print), ISBN 9789220431979 (web PDF), ISBN 9789220431993 (epub), ISBN9789220432006 (html). ISSN 2708-3438 (print), ISSN 2708-3446 (digital) https://doi.org/10.54394/00033147 whatsoever on the part of the ILO concerning the legal status of any country, area or territoryor of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. See:www.ilo. The opinions and views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not nec-essarily reflect the opinions, views or policies of the ILO. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their en-dorsement by the ILO, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or pro- Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at:www.ilo.org/research-and-publications ILO Working Papers summarize the results of ILO research in progress, and seek to stimulatediscussion of a range of issues related to the world of work. Comments on this ILO Working Paperare welcome and can be sent toresearch@ilo.org. Authorization for publication: Caroline Fredrickson, Director, Research Department ILO Working Papers can be found at:www.ilo.org/research-and-publications/working-papers Suggested citation:Gmyrek, P., Viollaz, M., Winkler, H. 2026.Disruption without Dividend?: How the Digital Divide and Task Differences Split GenAI’s Global Impact, ILO Working Paper 166 (Geneva, ILO).https://doi.org/10.54394/00033147 Abstract This article examines how generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) could affect labor marketsglobally, with particular attention to the uneven distribution of risks and opportunities betweenadvanced and developing economies. Cross-country differences in occupational structure suggestthat developing economies face lower aggregate automation exposure than advanced econo-mies but comparable potential for task augmentation. However, disparities in digital infrastruc-ture create an asymmetry: workers in positions vulnerable to automation typically maintain suffi-cient internet connectivity to experience displacement effects even in low-income settings, whilethose who could benefit from GenAI augmentation face substantial digital infrastructure gaps JEL codes:J24, O33, J21, O15, L86 Keywords:Generative artificial intelligence, Automation, Digital divide, Occupational exposure,Task automation, Technological diffusion About the authors Paweł Gmyrekis a Senior Researcher at the Research Department of the ILO. Mariana Viollazis a consultant at the Gender Department of the World Bank. Hernan Winkleris a Senior Economist at the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice forLatin America and the Caribbean. Table of contents 1.1 Occupations’ Exposure to GenAI1.2 Country-level GenAI Exposure1.3 Adjustment by Internet Access 2.1 Country-level jobs exposure to GenAI2.2 GenAI exposure by Internet Access2.3 GenAI exposure and the task content of jobs Li