货币展望：红灯...绿灯

Currency Outlook Red Light... Green Light It’s been close to mission impossibleto navigate the headlines around theIran conflict and what it means for FX,but it has meant a timely red light onthe USD’s fall; easing tensions would In this edition, we discuss the outlookfor EUR, NOK, the interplay betweenOil and Gold, and Ethereum. Wealso provide updates on our G10 FX Summary FX: Key trade themes (pg3) We highlight our trade ideas across major regions such as G10, Asia, CEEMEA andLatAm At a Glance (pg8) We highlight our keypoints, convictions andassociatedrisksunderpinningourcurrencyforecasts acrossmajorregions such as G10, Asia, CEEMEA and LatAm Overview:Red Light... Green Light It’s been close to mission impossible to navigate the headlines around the Iran conflict and whatit means for FX, but it has meant a timely red light on the USD’s fall; easing tensions would givethe green lightforresumed softening. The stop-and-go nature of geopolitical risk is not enough EUR:Making a safe haven (pg20) The EUR benefits from US policy uncertainty but still struggles when geopolitical tensionsescalate. Energy crises test a currency’s safe-haven status, by trying the credibility of its pricestability mandate, e.g. DEM in 1970s. Until the EUR bolsters itsinstitutional defences, it will NOK: Too hot to handle (pg24) The NOK has overshot its typical relationship with outlier moves in oil, barring a further upsideshock. Rate differentials remain supportive but are unlikely to drive the currency strongly.Structural factors can impede the NOK although these currently matter less for the FX market Oil & gold: They may not mix The relationship between oil and gold is historically uneven; after strengthening this year thecorrelation has since weakened. After strong correlations in the 1970s and 1980s, oil pricesappear to have a fading impact on gold. Oil is not a good predictorof gold prices, which appear Ethereum & smart contracts (pg30) Ethereum is a decentralised blockchain similar to Bitcoin, but with the additional ability to runprogrammes–a ‘world computer’. Smart contracts are self-executing computer codeprogrammes which can be executed, tracked and recorded on the blockchain. Ether is G10 FX model update Developments in the Middle East and oil prices remain fluid–USD likely to remain reactive torelated headlines. Moreover, our models do not suggest that the USD is clearly “overbought”across the board. Elsewhere, the CAD is screening “richer” compared to the NOK, while the What drove the FX market… For those who are looking for a review of what happened over the past month, we present amarket review ofFebruary. We consider the main drivers and key events that moved markets We acknowledge the assistance of Bangalore Associate Vanchit Gupta in the production ofthis report. Vanchit Gupta is employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. FX: Key trade themes ◆G10:Higher AUD-NZD,Lower EUR-USDand Lower EUR-SEK◆Asia: Lower CHF-CNH, Lower THB-KRW, Higher SGD-INR, HigherUSD-IDR G10 For details of trade ideas, please see the latestEM FX Roadmap(26 February2026),FX Tactician(19 February) andG10 FX model update(10 March2026). G10 themes are dominated by the USD, which is likely to maintain the upper hand if oil prices, riskaversion and cross-asset volatility all stay elevated (seeThe USD & ‘Buy America’?, 4 March 2026). Relativeoutperformance of US assets compared to the RoW is also a developing theme,adding more fuel to the USD’srecent moves,as is a lack of other safe-havencurrencies given theJPY is a net oil importer and fresh intervention threats from the SNB likely put a floor under G10-CHF pairs. Nonetheless,if theconflict in the Middle East showssigns of abatementitwould Higher AUD-NZD(Buy AUD-NZD, 19 February 2026) We believe there is further upside to AUD-NZD. Both currenciesaresimilarlyexposedtoexternal drivers such as equity and commodity indices, but the AUD’s correlations are stronger.Despite heightened risk aversion, the currency’s correlation with commodities (for example theBloomberg Commodity Index) has kept it supported. The NZD is also lacking domestic drivers Lower EUR-USD(Sell EUR-USD, 9 March 2026) We maintain ourtacticalpreference to sell EUR-USD, positioning forongoing uncertainty overMiddle East tensions.This event has shown the EURis still vulnerable in a crisis, especially onethat impacts energy prices. Europeangas storage has fallen well below the current five-yearaverage, similar to March 2022levels. The refill season usually starts in April and new supplyfrom Qatar LNG was meant to help fill thegap. If Qatar production remains offline it could createsignificant price pressure, especially as Asian countries, the biggest buyers of Qatar LNG,compete for US LNG. More broadly, passage through the Hormuz Strait remains restricted and 24 February 2022, European gas prices rose more dramatically, sending EUR-USD sharplylower. Although there are many difference