欧洲和美国的化学工业是如何分化的？

The global chemicals industry hasreached a fork in the road. Taking the highroad are businesses in the US. The moredifficult path is the route that Europe iscurrently facing and one that the regionmay struggle to climb back up from. that seen during the pandemic. Fallingcapacity leads to higher cost per ton ofoutput, adding to the already existing cost Why is the market more favourable for US The US chemicals industry has benefittedfrom the local shale gas boom. Drilling andextraction techniques developed around 15years ago provide the USA with a cheap andreliable source of natural gas. US natural Director General of the EuropeanChemical Industry Council (Cefic), MarcoMensink, pointed to energy costs as one of He said: “Energy costs are the Achillesheel of the European chemical industry.No other region in the world is as affected This has resulted in a reshaping of theUS chemicals landscape, especially forcommoditised basic chemicals, and agrowth in new projects and investments.The American Chemistry Council estimates Where does Europe get its natural gas There is some light in the future forEurope’s industry, but this is dimmerthat that seen in other regions. Aftercontracting by 4% in 2022 and 7% in 2023,Europe´s chemicals production is forecast Today the EU has pivoted away fromRussian gas, with imports dropping fromover 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023.Europe is consuming greater volumes ofLiquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and is havingto rely on more expensive and volatile This has led to low and more stable gasprices in the US, which have reduced the costof producing chemicals, such as ethylene, While the sector is looking much lessbleak, structurally higher energy costs arelikely to continue hampering recovery.There is speculation around whether The current capacity utilisation rate ofthe chemicals industry in the eurozoneis approximately 7% below its 2015-2019 In contrast the predicted growth ratesfor Europe are 1.3%, where severalmarkets are struggling. This canespecially be seen in Germany, by far thelargest chemicals producer in Europe, The outlook: Lower investment in the At the same time that the US is benefittingfrom the boom in shale gas, Europe isconsuming greater volumes of LNG. Thisis reinforcing the divide between the tworegions, at least in the medium term. USchemicals producers are able to enjoy fairly Looking further ahead Europe is facingsignificant loss of competitiveness in keyproducts such as ammonia and fertiliser.Energy costs mainly affect basic chemicals,which use natural gas directly as a feedstock China and Middle East also enjoy bettergrowth prospects compared to Europe The Chinese chemicals industry hasincreased capacity over recent years,supporting its ability to maintain The downside risk of relocation for Chemicals manufacturers in the MiddleEast continue to benefit from plentifulsupplies of local oil, gas and chemicalsfeedstocks, helping to underpin stronggrowth projections. Most growth will be Europe and Asia’s use of naphtha to produceupstream chemicals also puts them at a long- In order to stay competitive, the chemicalsindustry in Europe is likely to focus onincreasing efficiency and developing newproducts and technologies (specialitychemicals) in order to meet the challengesof the energy transition. The pressure toadapt is particularly great in Germany,and indeed across Europe, because thecompetitive disadvantages caused by high The investment outlook for chemicals in theUS is significantly higher than Europe andthe rest of the world, with compound annualgrowth rates (CAGR) for 2024-2034 of 3.8%(see chart 1). In contrast, our predictions for As can be seen in the CAGR predictions forchemicals production over the next tenyears, Europe lags behind the USA, Chinaand the Middle East in the production ofboth chemicals (see chart 3) and basic Are we facing a cataclysmic event? Theshort answer is yes, the chemicals marketis facing a structural upheaval and one thatis likely to reshape trade in the industry for The gap between markets is even widerwhen we look at investments for the sameperiod for basic chemicals. The CAGR forinvestment in basic chemicals in the USA2024-2034 is 4.7% (see chart 2), markedly Based in Cologne, Germany,Senior UnderwriterOlafGierlichs-Steffens is theAtradius Trade SectorSpecialist for the chemicalsindustry. Olaf started his Atradius Copyright © Atradius N.V. 2024Disclaimer: This publication is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, legal advice or as a recommendation as to particular transactions,investments or strategies to any reader. Readers must make their own independent decisions,commercial or otherwise, regarding the information provided. While we have made every attemptto ensure that the information contained in this publication has been obtained from reliablesources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained fromthe use of this inf