破产正常化，但贸易战带来新风险

In 2024 we observed large insolvencies increases across most markets. Companies faced adverseeconomic conditions, mostly coming from high input prices, high interest rates and the final steps in We expect that the peak of this surge has been reached, since inflation stabilised and financialconditions are gradually relaxing along with the monetary loosening cycle. At a global level, thistranslates into no change in insolvencies in 2025, as they start the year on a relatively high level and However, a full-blown trade war scenario would cause insolvencies to continue to rise.There is asignificant risk to our baseline coming from a full-blown trade war that could lead to even highertariffs, higher inflation and a delay of monetary loosening. In this downward scenario, insolvencies Global insolvencies are expected to remain at approximately thesame level in 2025 as in 2024, followed by a more pronounceddecline of 5% year-on-year in 2026. For about half of the 29markets that we monitor in this report, insolvencies areexpected to decrease in 2025. This comes after a remarkable loosens, leading to a more pronounced decrease in insolvencies In our baseline, the unfolding trade war and higher tariffs has anegative effect on growth, but the impact on insolvenciesremains limited. At the same time, we recognise that thebaseline scenario is surrounded by high uncertainty given the Economic outlook facessome turbulence Overall, we expect companies to benefit from more favourablefinancing conditions in 2025, though important downside risks For the global economy, we predict that economic growth willreach 2.6% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. The highly uncertain UStariff policy is a serious threat for the global growth outlook, Insolvencies increased in2024 across almost all For the US economy, we predict in our baseline scenario a 2.0%growth in 2025, which, due to tariffs and policy uncertainty hasalready been revised downwards by 0.7 percentage pointscompared to the previous Insolvency Outlook of September2024. This is expected to be followed by 2.5% growth in 2026.In March, the US imposed an additional tariff of 10% on Chineseimports, bringing the total level to 30%. A 25% tariff on importsfrom Canada and Mexico was also put in place and this isanticipated to stay until mid-2026, at which point it will be Globally, insolvencies increased by 19% year-on-year in 2024.This was a broad-based increase, present in almost all 29markets that we monitor in this report (see figure 1). Most markets registered high increases, exceeding 15%. Theseresulted from a combination of factors. The slowing down ofeconomic activity, the pressure from increased input costs andthe persistence of high interest rates were present in mostmarkets. Additionally, in the cases with the highest increases ininsolvencies, there was additional pressure from the phasingout of pandemic related government support schemes. The eurozone is expected to experience 0.9% growth in 2025.Germany remains very weak in 2025, as the industrial sectorcontinues to struggle, which is exacerbated by the US importtariffs. By comparison, countries in southern Europe aredemonstrating relatively strong GDP figures, driven by agrowing tourism sector, labour market recovery and fiscal Some markets experienced other specific problems. In NewZealand, most of the insolvencies originated from theconstruction sector that was affected by a major correction inhouse prices. Facing rising input costs and a competitive The major central banks have responded to the decrease ininflation and embarked on a path of loosening their monetarypolicies. The European Central Bank (ECB) already started todecrease its key rate in mid-2024, whereas the Federal Reserve In the Netherlands, the United States and Italy, insolvencies alsoincreased considerably, but towards levels that are close to pre-Covid levels. Although the business environment was negativelyaffected by high interest rates and a phasing out of government In the short term, companies may be impacted by a morerestrictive access to credit due to the ongoing economicuncertainty. Bank lending surveys in both the US and eurozoneshowed modest net tightening of lending standards in Q4 of Insolvencies are forecast tostabilise in 2025 and to Figure 1 Most markets registered in 2024 remarkably With the post-Covid adjustment ending and central bankscontinuing their monetary easing cycle, we expect thatinsolvencies will start decreasing in the second half of 2025 andcontinue into 2026. Interest rate cuts are expected to lower Conversely, three markets experienced a decline in insolvenciesin 2024. The steepest decline occurred in Denmark, whereinsolvencies already experienced a high peak in 2023. Moreover,the economy performed exceptionally well in 2024, registeringrobust economic growth. We interpret this as a sign of resiliencefor the Danish companies that seem to have adapted to the Figure 2 presents our forecasts aggregated globall