中东和北非地区经济展望-2025年9月

Looking for safehavens in adivided region Table of Contents Summaryiii Looking for safe havens in a divided region1 1.Economic growth doubles in pace21.1Oil-driven rebound21.2Non-oil growth robustness GCC21.3Consumption-led recovery elsewhere3 2.High resilience to shocks52.1Limited impact Trump’s tariffs52.2Limited spillover from Gaza war62.3Regional escalation would be disastrous7 3.Gulf states have reform momentum73.1Fiscal strength73.2FDI safe haven8 4.From deficits to discontent84.1Fundamental underinvestment84.2High debt, low credit growth as barriers94.3Too much misery for reforms104.4Looking for fiscal friendly growth10 Summary The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has navigated choppy waters over the past twoyears, but there is light on the horizon. Although the Gaza war is still raging, Israel hasestablished ceasefire deals with Hezbollah and Iran, limiting the risk of regional escalation.Houthi attacks on ships along the Red Sea route and the Gulf of Aden are less frequent andmore targeted than before. Oil production is reviving after a period of moderation sincethe oil market boom in 2022. And easing inflation and interest rate cuts will stimulatehousehold spending across the region. As a result, real GDP growth in MENA is set toalmost double, from 2.0% in 2024 to 3.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. However, the regionremains divided, both in a geopolitical sense and in terms of economic growth potential. Apossible failure of resumed negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran could lead to renewedmilitary intervention by Israel and the US, particularly given the uncertainty over Iran’sremaining nuclear capabilities and ambitions. On the economic front, oil-exporting and oil-importing countries face different challenges. Oil-exporting countries will have the wind intheir sails. With oil production cuts being reversed, they will continue to invest in economicdiversification. For them, the key question is whether this momentum can be sustainedonce oil prices decline further after 2027/28. In contrast, highly indebted oil-importingcountries have limited fiscal space for growth-enhancing investments. Fiscal reforms areneeded, but lingering social unrest stands in the way. MENA is poised for a remarkable economic resurgence – outpacing every other regionin the world. Between 2024 and 2026, real GDP growth is projected to nearly double,reaching an impressive 3.8%. While this surge is largely tied to oil market dynamics, italso underscores MENA’s resilience to external shocks. The region has been leastaffected by global trade tensions and spillovers from conflict zones in its own backyardhave remained contained. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, non-oil growth is robust and reform-driven, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the bloc’s ambitious diversificationefforts. Despite softer oil prices, governments have retained fiscal space for continuedinvestment, supported by low public debt, sizeable sovereign wealth funds andongoing efforts to mobilise non-oil revenue streams. The region’s reputation as a safehaven is undented by elevated regional turbulence. Rising levels of foreign directinvestment provide an additional financial boost to its transformation agenda. In contrast, energy-importing MENA economies are experiencing a more cyclical,consumption-led recovery, aided by lower oil prices, easing inflation and falling interestrates. However, investment is held back by limited fiscal space, macroeconomicimbalances and political uncertainty, while socioeconomic tensions hinder reform.Unlocking stronger growth requires growth-friendly fiscal reforms and stronger policyframeworks. Morocco offers a promising model, combining gradual fiscal consolidationwith public-private partnerships to boost investment in strategic sectors. Egypt couldfollow suit by aligning IMF-backed macroeconomic stabilisation with an ambitiousprivatisation programme. Looking forsafe havens ina dividedregion The regional economic growth outlook would be even moreimpressive if we excluded the few countries that did suffereconomic damage from wars, namely Iran and Israel. Thesecountries carry significant economic weight in the MENAregion. Without them, expected aggregate real GDP growthwould already reach 3.8% this year, rather than next –implying a 0.5 percentage-point faster acceleration. 1.Economic growthdoubles in pace Real GDP growth in MENA will nearly double to 3.8% between2024 and 2026 (figure 1 and table 1). This expected uptick isfar stronger than in any other region in the world. While thisfits in the particularly volatile economic growth pattern thatthis region has displayed post-corona, it also underscoresMENA’s remarkable resilience to recent external shocks. Forexample, MENA is globally the least affected by Trump’s tradetariffs. Regional spillovers from the Gaza war and relatedconflicts have so far been limited, and non-oil sectors inparticularly the Gulf states have continued to show robust