一年过去了：南非的GNU能解锁增长吗？

One year on: can SouthAfrica’s GNU unlock growth? Themid-2024formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) in South Africainitially boosted investor confidence, as it was seen as business friendly and committedto much-needed reforms to accelerate growth. For years, economic growth has beensubdued, with deficient infrastructure–particularlythe underperformance of key state-owned enterprises Eskom and Transnet–being a significant constraint. Persistent loweconomic growth, eroding investor confidence and fiscal constraints have keptinvestment levels low. Aswift implementation of reforms and increased investmentsare essential to unlock faster, more inclusive growth. To achieve this, collaborationbetween the coalition partners, the African National Congress and the DemocraticAlliance, remains key. Optimism surged when a Government of NationalUnity (GNU) was formed in the summer of 2024. Forthe first time since 1994, the African National Congress(ANC) lost its majority in parliament and entered acoalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA). Initially,investor confidence improved, as the GNU was seen asreform-oriented, a business-friendly alliance capable ofreviving the economy and restoring political stability.One year on, the outlook is more complex. Economicprogress has been uneven, the coalition appearsfragile, and public confidence is beginning to fade. Tensions between the two largest coalition parties,ANC and DA,have intensified, creating politicaluncertainty and threatening a swift implementation ofkey reforms. External pressures have compoundedthese challenges. The return of Trump in the WhiteHousehas strained US-South Africa relations. Thesubstantial import tariffs on South Africa and thepotential loss of preferential trade through the AfricanGrowth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)are expected to hitthe economy. Especially the automotive sector andagriculture are vulnerable. While facingthese headwinds, the GNU needs to focus onaddressing the substantial domestic challenges that have longhindered economic growth. The GNU faces a critical test: can itovercome internal divisions and deliver the reforms needed tobring growth to a higherpath? Electricity woes; the Eskom burden South Africa’s economic performance is heavily constrained bydeficient infrastructure, largely due to years of mismanagementand corruption within state owned enterprises (SOEs)responsible for its development and maintenance. Chronicunderinvestment andneglect have led to the poor state ofinfrastructure we see today. Subdued economic growthfor years A striking example is the issue of loadshedding. These areplanned power outages implemented to prevent a total collapseof the electricity grid. The outages, which intentionallydisconnect consumers from the grid, have a severe impact onthe economy. Businesses have to halt their operations oruse(more expensive) alternatives to generate electricity. In 2023,South Africa experienced the worst load shedding on record,with the OECD estimating a 1.5% reduction in economic growthas a result1. South Africa has long been one of the growth laggards in Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA). Over the past decade, with an averageeconomic growth of only 0.7% per year,South Africa’s growthhas been extremely moderate. As seen in figure 1,it has beenwell below the regional and emerging markets averages. Thisyear growth is expected to be only slightly higher.Being Africa’slargest economy, South Africa continues to struggle addressingits deep-rooted challenges, including persistently highunemployment, especially among the youth, and one of thehighest inequality rates in the world. Planned power outagesin South Africa, monthly GWh Since March 2024, the frequency of loadshedding has dropped.Eskom,a SOE and themain provider of electricity, was able tobring several generation units back online after long-termmaintenance. In addition, the private sector invested heavily inalternative energy sources, easing the pressure on the nationalgrid. Despite these improvements, the electricity supply remainsfragile.Loadshedding returned briefly in early 2025,highlighting ongoing vulnerabilities. Several diverging shocks and challenges, both domestic andexternal, were responsible for the subdued economic growth inprevious years. These include the economic fallout from theCovid-19 pandemic in 2020; the July 2021 social unrest; and thefloods in April 2022. While these shocks have played a role, themost pressing constraints on growth are structural anddomestic in nature. Eskom, whichgenerates 90%of the national electricity,is goingthrough a major restructuring to address its significant financialand operational challenges. Years of poor governance and fallingsales have eroded its financial health, prompting thegovernment to provide substantial support. At the end of the 2024 financial year Eskom’s debt stood at approximately 85% ofits total assets, around 8% of GDP2. To support Eskom, thegovernment introduced the Eskom Debt Relief Act