CCS项目中二氧化碳运输的需求、机遇和前景

NEEDS, OPPORTUNITIES ANDPROSPECTS FOR CO2 SHIPPINGIN CCS PROJECTS NOVEMBER 2025 ANGUS GILLESPIE,Strategic Adviser CONTENTS 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.0.Executive summary32.0.Introduction43.0.The role of shipping in CO2 transport54.0.Estimates of CO2 transport volumes and costs85.0.Background to the rise in prospects for CO2 shipping116.0.Advantages of an expanded role for CO2 shipping137.0.Focus areas to support growth in CO2 shipping to 2040178.0.Possible scenarios for CO2 shipping volumes to 2040189.0.Conclusions and recommendations21 There is a healthy development pipeline ofCO2vessels at present in design, constructionor testing. The general scale of activities inthe CO2shipping value chain is also growing,withthe most active players having mostlyexpandedfrom large-scale gas transportactivities. Current CO2shipping activities areconcentrated in Europe and the Asia Pacific,whichtogether account for about 90%ofemerging CCS projects that rely on shippingfor transport. CO2shipping today is a nascent industry withannual volumes of about 0.5 million tonnes ofCO2, serving mainly food and drink industriesaroundnorthern Europe.Pipelines currentlydominateCO2transportfor CCS projects,accounting for over 95% of the global CO2transport capacity. The prospects for growth inCO2shipping for CCS do, however, look strong;moreand larger CO2vesselsare currentlybeingbuilt and planned,and a significantnumber of CCS projects in development planto use shipping-based CO2transport. Threescenarioscreated for this paper suggestCO2shipping volumes could reach about 75Mtpa, 125 Mtpa or over 600 Mtpa by 2040,the latter under highly optimistic conditions ofcooperation in trade and climate action. Themain regions for CO2shipping are the AsiaPacific, Africa and South America. Theanticipated growth in CO2shippingwilllikely mirror growth in the global CCSprojectdevelopment pipeline.That comesfrom shipping’s contribution to the improvedcommercial and technical feasibility of moreCCS projects. Its role in operationalising long-distanceCO2transportcan help addressthestrandedemissionsdilemmafacingcountries lacking nearby pore space for whichCCS would otherwise be a viable industrialemissions mitigation choice. Fornon-owners,shippingcostsarepredominantly operational (or variable) ratherthan capital (or fixed) in nature; the opposite ofpipeline costs. This means shipping should bemore cost-competitive for relatively small CCSprojects for distances over about 250 km, aswell as short-lived projects or those with highlyvariable capture volumes. There are, however,still legal and regulatory obstacles to the cross-border transport of CO2using shipping. Still,these issues are surmountable – if sufficientpolitical will exists. Prompted by a belief that CO2shipping willhave a major role to play in future climatemanagement, and especially in situations ofstrandedemissions where volumes of CO2are expected to be most significant, shippingoperatorsappear prepared(even if mostlyreactively rather than speculatively) to build(or adapt) more CO2vessels. This could leadtothe emergence of a large and valuablenewmaritime business that might initiallycomplement, and ultimately even replace, theglobal hydrocarbon shipping industry. Thepressure and temperature at whichcryogenic CO2is transported is a critical designchoice for CO2vessels. Current ships havechosen a medium pressure design to optimisethetrade-off between density(and hencecargo volumes) and costs. New ship designsare adapting from that position to allow largercargoes or extended vessel applications, suchas direct injection of CO2into the seabed. 3.0 THE ROLE OF SHIPPINGIN CO2 TRANSPORT 2.0 INTRODUCTION Shipping is an increasingly attractive alternative forCO₂ transport, especially for early movers in CCSproject planning. It is a flexible transport optionwithout fixed infrastructure (albeit with a need forspecialist port facilities), is scalable, versatile, andits economics are less sensitive to fluctuations inthe underlying CO2capture volumes profile thanpipelines. The shipping of CO2is, however, still atthe very early stages of development, accountingfor less than 0.5% of all CO2transported globally.Thisreport provides a review of the status ofshipping-based CO2transport and an assessment ofits medium-term prospects over the next 15 years.Based mainly on a literature review, it considersthe influences on future CO2shipping volumes thatinclude both the technical issues around vessel andport design as well as the key legal and regulatoryfactors.The report closes with an indicativequantifiedrange of scenario-based regional andglobal CO2shipping volumes. At its most basic, shipping CO2is an alternative formof transport to the orthodox use of pipelines to moveliquefied CO2from its source to either a temporarylocation for consolidation or its ultimate destination forstorage or use. Shipping is likely to be employed in CCSprojects in preference to pipelines for economic reasonsprimarily related to