全球服装供应的重新配置：谁将生产明天的“中国制造”产品？

Reconfiguration of global clothing supply: who will Paris,July 1st, 2025–China's dominance in the globalapparel industry iscrumbling,weakened by rising costs,regulatory constraints andunprofitablespecialization.The return of Donald Trump to the White Houseand his aggressive trade policycould accelerate the diversification of Three keytrends : •China is losing ground: its share of global clothing exports has fallenfrom 54% in 2010 to 41% in 2023.•South and Southeast Asia are gaining ground:Bangladesh,Cambodia, Pakistan, Vietnam and India are best placed if uniformcustoms duties are applied. Trade liberalization and China's export power The gradual removal of textile quotas between 1995 and 2005, combined withChina's entry into the WTO in 2001, greatly stimulated its exports of clothing However, this breakthrough cannot be explained solely by tradeliberalization.China has taken advantage of its large population and lowlaborcosts (a key AlthoughChina remains the world's leading exporter of clothing,itsdominance is weakening. Its shareofglobal exports has fallen from This decline can be explained by aneconomicmodelfocusedonsubcontracting for Western brands.However,thesemanufacturingactivities are verylow payingin thevaluechain.Thus,despite their Thisloss of competitiveness isaccentuated by the continuous risein wages (+6% per yearon averagesince 2010). In 2000, an Americanemployeeearned 18 times morethan a Chinese worker, comparedwith only4.6 times more in 2023.Added to this are new regulatory Uniform customs duty scenario: South Asia lying in wait Donald Trump's return could accelerate the diversification of textile supplychains away from China. Coface has developed a country attractiveness index In an initial scenario where all of the United States' trading partners are subjecttouniform customs duties of 10%,except for China, which ispenalizedmore heavily1, the countries best positioned to capture market share areBangladesh,Cambodia,PakistanandVietnam.India, ranked 6th, could also benefit fromthe development of its vast domestic market. Finally, post-Covid relocation Reciprocal customs duty scenario: Europeans better equipped Inthis second scenario,the US administration introduces differentiatedcustoms duties, in line with the reciprocal measures announced in April andsubsequently suspended. In this situation, our index suggests that customs Conversely, countries such asVietnam,LesothoandJordanwould lose morecompetitiveness.European countries, on the other hand, would benefit froma relative advantage, with lower tariffs and less exposure to the US—unless Read the full studyhere COFACE PRESS OFFICE Adrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15Malcolm Biiga:+33 6 47 09 92 66adrien.billet@coface.comLucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for more than 75 years, Cofacehelps Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Riskinsurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge