预计2026年全球企业破产将增加2.8%

FOCUS Corporate insolvencies expectedto remain stubbornly high in 2026, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Corporate insolvencies across advanced economies have risen sharply since the withdrawal of pandemic-era support,driven by high debt servicing costs, weak demand, and sector-specific pressures. While government interventioninitially suppressed insolvency rates, normalisation and subsequent economic shocks – such as post-pandemic Insolvencies rose across most advanced economies in 2025, driven primarily by weak economic conditions. In somecountries – particularly Italy and the United States – figures were also shaped by ongoing legislative changes. Sectoralstrains were particularly pronounced in real estate, manufacturing (especially automotive and energy-intensive This publication sets out our baseline scenario for the corporate insolvency development in 2026, which anticipatesa continued rise in insolvencies, albeit at a more moderate pace. This reflects a stabilisation at high levels followingseveral years of rapid increases. The forecast is supported by some positive drivers such as some easing in financialconditions, including lower interest rates and gradually less stringent credit conditions. However, these positive Corporate Insolvencies:where are we? Normalisation and further shocksFollowing this period of intervention came a phase of normalisation. During this phase, insolvency proceedings returned to standard practice, support schemes werephasedout,and companies began repaying loans The pandemic and government interventionThe COVID-19 pandemic, and the varied governmental responses to it – ranging from lockdowns to other forms ofintervention – caused significant disruption to the broadereconomy, corporate operations, and the labour market.Governments introduced substantial support measures, First, some companies had taken on substantial debtduring and after the pandemic. As support measuresended and repayments became due, many were unableto meet their obligations and opted for or were forcedinto restructuring or liquidation. From 2022 onwards, therise was particularly striking. In 2022, it rose by around These interventions contributed to a relatively low numberof insolvencies across most advanced economies. Combinedwith historically low interest rates – driven by central bankscuttingpolicy rates–these measures helped sustainpurchasing power and corporate liquidity. The latter dynamicis illustrated inChart 1, which shows a rise in corporate debtthat enabled many firms to survive, and in some cases thrive,despite the challenging environment. As a result, the sharp Second, creditors– both private and public – resumedfiling winding-up petitions. In several countries, this led toa backlog as courts reopened and adjusted to the post-pandemic reality. Deferred tax liabilities, including VAToremployer social security contributions,meant thatauthorities often played a central role in driving insolvencyfilings during this period. To put this into perspective: inFrance,URSSAF–the main body responsible forcollecting and distributing social security contributions – is estimated to initiate between 30% and 40% of winding-uppetitions. In the UK, HMRC – tax, payments and customs150GDP growth, rhs axis Onceagain,the relationship between economic activityand corporate insolvencies became opaque, as much ofthe increase in insolvencies was driven by the unwinding ofearlier support measures rather than underlying economicweakness.8090100110 As government support measures were phased out and60 economies began to normalise, several key economicshocks emerged. Inflation surged, driven partly by strongpost-pandemic demand and disrupted supply chains.This was compounded by a sharp rise in energy pricesfollowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and thesubsequent sanctions imposed by Western countries.5020132014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025(e)A This combined price shock led to a significant increasein inflation, prompting central banks to raise policy ratesto levels not seen in decades. The result was a cost-of-living crisis for consumers and a further cost shock forbusinesses, particularly as labour costs rose in responseto higher wage demands. The rise in corporate borrowingcosts has had the greatest impact in economies wherevariable or short-term fixed-rate debt is more prevalent,compared to those where firms typically rely on long-term fixed-rate debt instruments. In the United States, forexample, fixed rates are more common in bank lending,and bond financing is more commonly used. As a result,the deterioration in interest coverage ratios has beenmore pronounced in Europe than in the United States.0500100015002000250030003500400045005000Q1Q2 Q3 Q420212022202320242025(e)Insolvencies using “New Procedures”, lhs axisInsolvencies using “Old Procedures”, lhs axisNon-performing loans ratio of non-finantial corporations,rhs axisQ1Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-25-20-15-10-505