行动中：仍在等待解冻

On the move: Still waiting for the thaw 03 September 2025 Key takeaways •The number of people moving within the US declined year over year (YoY) in 2025 Q2, according to Bank of America accountdata. Between city moves were more evident in southern and midwestern cities over the Northeast and West. •A cooling labor market might be contributing to the decline. But the 'lock-in effect,' where some households are on much lowerfixed mortgage rates than those currently offered, continues to restrain existing home supply. •This lock-in effect is likely not uniform across the country. A combination of a higher share of mortgages on lower rates and ahigh share of households paying a significant share of their monthly income on mortgages likely makes it most binding in theWest. Moving is still not really movingThe number of people that are moving remains significantly lower than before the pandemic–down around 20% in 2025 Q2 compared to 2020 Q1. The signs of an upswing seen earlier this year (read publication:On the move: More movers, fewerhomebuyers) have not been sustained in the second quarter, according to Bank of America account data. In fact, the number ofpeople moving both between cities (i.e., metropolitan statistical areas or“MSAs”) and within the same city fell year over year(YoY) in 2025 Q2, with a particularly pronounced decline in the latter category (Exhibit 1). When people do change cities, the Midwest remains a popular choice, according to Bank of America account data, withIndianapolis and Columbus topping our list of the fastest-growing MSAs (Exhibit 2). Texas is also still a popular destination, with Austin and San Antonio receiving new inflows. In terms of departures, generally, cities in the West and Northeast continue toshow outflows, while Florida also continues to look soft, with outflows in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. Broadly, the YoY growth in both inflows and outflows between cities in 2025 Q2 looks to have cooled relative to Q1. Note thatthis data focuses on domestic migration flows and does not capture trends in international migration. Exhibit2:Cities including IndianapolisandColumbus showedthe fastestinflowpopulation change in 2025 Q2, whereasmanycities in the Westand Northeast and in Florida showed outflowsNet population change in major MSAs, according to Bank of America internal data (YoY % change, positive means net inflow, negative means net outflow) Slowing jobs market may remove some pull factorsGenerationally, around half of city-to-city moves (i.e., cross-MSA moves) are by Gen Z and Millennials (Exhibit 3). However, this figure has slipped a little over the last year, while the share of moves by Baby Boomers and Traditionalists has risen slightly. One reason for both the continued sluggish overall moves from city to city and the fall in the share of younger generationsmaking them could be a slowdown in the jobs market (see publication:Job hoppers hit pause). Over 40% of respondents to the2024 Home Buyer Insights Reportsaid they were likely to move across states for job reasons, so this is a clear driver of longer-distance housing moves. Given that job openings have gradually declined across Census regions (Exhibit 4), it could be some ofthis pull factor in moves has slackened. It is also reasonable to assume that this impacts younger generations more than oldergenerations, who are more likely to have established careers in one location. Exhibit4:All regions have seen a gradual decline in job openingssince 2022 Exhibit5: Overall housing supply has steadily increased yeartodatethrough July) Job openings rate by Census region (monthly, seasonally adjusted(SA), %) Existing and new home months' supply (SA Lock-in is not a uniform storyAnother important factor keeping moving mobility depressed has been the relative lack of housing supply. One positive piece of news is that this constraint is easing–albeit slowly.Exhibit 5shows that new housing supply has been rising briskly and was atjust under 10 months of sales in June. But while supply is rising for existing homes too, it is doing so at a less significant pace.The months’supply of existing homes is around 2015/16 levels, currently at 4.6 months–still well below earlier peaks. One factor holding back existing supply has been the so-called“lock-in effect,”whereby many existing homeowners have fixed-rate mortgages at significantly lower rates than current levels (Exhibit 6). As a result, selling and resetting their mortgage wouldmean a significant rise in costs–so they are choosing to sit tight instead, keeping supply depressed. Exhibit7:The West appears to have a higher share oftherelevantregional mortgage stock with rates below 5%Share of mortgages with rates below 4% and 5% by Census region (2025 Exhibit6:Current30-yearfixed-rate mortgages areat amuchhigher rate than the average rate on the stock of mortgage debtCurrent 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate and effective mortgage rate on Q1, %) stock of mortgage d