流动中：美国移民模式

On the move: US migration patterns Key takeaways •Fewer Americans are packing up each year, yet when they do move, they overwhelmingly stay in their home region, according toBank of America account data. The big story isn't a national reshuffle - it's people trading one nearby city for another that fitstheir budget and lifestyle a little better. •Austin and Denver keep pulling in newcomers, especially from other Sunbelt metros, while LA, NYC, and Miami continue to seemore people heading for cheaper pastures. Affordability and climate remain the two biggest magnets - and the two biggestpush factors. •Whether it's New York, Philadelphia, LA, or even Austin, inflows and outflows often mirror each other. People aren't abandoningregions, they're reshaping their lives within them, hunting for value without giving up too much familiarity. Fewer movers – and not venturing far from homeFewer and fewer people are moving every year in the US, according to Bank of America account data. In fact, the number of those picking up stakes has more than halved since 2021 (Exhibit 1). Diving deeper, we see the number of people moving todifferent states or MSAs (metropolitan statistical area) has consistently declined more than those moving within the same areaover the past few years. When people do leave for another state or MSA, they are more likely to stay in the same US Census region (Exhibit 2). That trendhas persisted for the past five years, despite changes in the labor market (read more in theDecember Institute EmploymentReport) and affordability of housing (read more inOn the move: Renters catch a break). In other words, in our view, based onBank of America data, the majority of people would rather not move too far from home no matter the circumstances. Exhibit1:The number of people moving to different states or MSAsdeclined faster than those moving within the same MSAChange in the number of people moving by location (Q3 figures for 2021 Exhibit2:When moving to another city or state, people oftenchoose to relocate in the same regionShare of people moving within the same region and to a different region to 2025, year-over-year (YoY%)) and change in the total number ofmovers (Q4 figures from 2021 to 2025, indexed to 2021 = 100)) (yearly, %) People continued to favor smaller and comparatively less expensive citiesEven with overall mobility slowing, the Midwest is still having a moment. Bank of America account data shows that affordability, paired with a surge in large-scale projects like data center builds, is pulling people in (read more in our publication:Regionalroundup: Midwestern pop). In fact, three of the five fastest-growing MSAs in Q4 2025 are in the region, with Indianapolis andColumbus holding the top two spots for the second straight quarter and Cleveland joining them to round out the group (Exhibit3). Meanwhile, in absolute terms, parts of the Sunbelt continued to draw steady interest. Austin and Denver are both seeingmeaningful population gains, helped by a mix of factors including job growth, lifestyle appeal, and relative value compared tocoastal hubs. And in the Northeast, Philadelphia saw the third largest influx of new residents in nominal terms, although they areonly driving a modest percentage increase given the city’s already large population. But it’s far from a universal story of growth. Many cities across the South and West–and most of the Northeast–are nowseeing declines. In fact, nearly two-thirds of the major MSAs we track posted a drop in domestic migration, underscoring justhow uneven the map has become. Miami and Los Angeles (LA) top the list as the cities with the largest population loss year-over-year (YoY) and in absolute terms in Q4 2025. And while New York City is also seeing a large nominal outflow, thepercentage population decrease is more modest. Net population change in major MSAs, according to Bank of America internal data (YoY % change, positive meansnet inflow, negative means net outflow) Austin, Denver, and Philadelphia top the list of largest increases in new movers Don’t mess with Texas, especially when it comes to intra-state movers. In 2025, nearly one in four of Austin’s new residentscame from other major metros in the Lone Star State (Exhibit 4). Another third came from elsewhere in the South, with somenotable inflows from Miami and Washington, D.C. A further quarter came from the West, with notable inflows from LA, SanFrancisco/San Jose, and Seattle. So, in our view, Austin is likely a target locale for people looking for a growing city that retains asmall town feel with comparatively less expensive housing (read more in the publication:Q3 2025 On the move). Austin’s migration flow shows a city with an unusual equilibrium. Although the city is seeing net population growth, the inboundand outbound cities showed similar shares. In our view, it’s possible that while many new residents have put down roots, somefind Austin is a helpful gateway. In other words