2026年地平线顶级趋势报告

HorizonsTop Trends 2026 AI growth and geoeconomicshifts in cleantech marketsconfirm that energy expansionand sustainability are linkedimperatives 10 December 2025 Credits Authors: Roman KramarchukFrancesco d’Avack Contributors: Brian Murphy, Bruno Brunetti, Christoph Berg, Conway Irwin, Edurne Zoco, Jeff Meyer, Kelly Morgan, Kevin Birn,Matt Macfarland, Sam Wilkinson, Anna Mosby, Ina Chirita, Cormac Gilligan, Tyyra Linko Design:Content Design Contents Introduction.....................................................................3AI growth tests.................................................................4Solar growth peaks...........................................................6Grid infrastructure key......................................................8Hybrid PPAs rise..............................................................10China’s green H2..............................................................12SAF grows up..................................................................14Global EV sales surge.......................................................16Aligning carbon standards.................................................18Energy geopolitics evolve..................................................19Adaptation gap...............................................................20What’s next?..................................................................22 Introduction Profound geopolitical shifts and strategicrepositioning in complex, interconnected energyand sustainability ecosystems will shape energymarkets in 2026. The US is charting its own course, driven by rapid AI growth andevolving energy priorities. Europe is working to reconcile diverseobjectives, while China consolidates its cleantech leadership andseeks to draw global markets closer. AI’s explosive power demand is testing grid limits, revenuemodels and sustainability goals. The pace of progress will dependon unlocking new capacity and flexibility, with grid modernizationa key constraint on energy security and competitiveness. Geopolitical alignment is reshaping the trajectories ofrenewables, hydrogen, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electricvehicles and climate policy, with supply chain and carbonaccounting battles intensifying. China’s dominance in cleanenergy supply and technology is growing, while Europe and theUS navigate policy swings and market volatility. Mounting physical and financial climate risks are turningadaptation from optional to essential. The interplay ofthese trends — AI-driven demand, grid bottlenecks, evolvingprocurement strategies, scaling technologies for hard-to-abatesectors, disjointed carbon rules, rising costs of climate risk andthe urgent need for resilience — highlights how energy expansionand sustainability are not parallel ambitions, but intertwinedimperatives shaping the global energy future. AI growth tests As AI uptake soars in2026, energy supply andsustainability commitmentsface a breaking point Energy’s high-growth view shows global data center powerdemand increasing 17% to 2026 and 14% per year through 2030,reaching potential demand of over 2,200 TWh , roughly equivalentto India’s current total electricity consumption. Access to sufficient energy is a critical enabler of a transitionto an economy supercharged by AI. Energy may be the gatingfactor that will determine countries’ speed of progress and, byextension, their geoeconomic competitiveness. S&P Global Although uncertainties around the magnitude of growth areconsiderable, expansion at this rate — or anything approaching it— will reverberate across the economy, influencing infrastructureplanning, investment flows and national policy, as well asraising environmental concerns. The year 2026 will increasinglyshine a spotlight on whether the industry can maintain rapidgrowth while balancing the sustainability side of the equation.Economics and speed to market will remain key determinantsof data center power supply choice, particularly where there areoptions in supply, and those two top priorities will not alwaysalign with sustainability goals. $500B Spending on US data centers nears $500 billion in 2026 meeting those commitments is getting harder, as is beingacknowledged in the most recent company sustainabilityreports. Data center companies have been leading cleanpower procurement efforts to meet their power needsand climate ambitions, and we look for these to continue,although the pace of new near-term power purchaseagreement uptake has been slowing. In 2026, we could seethe start of revisions to existing targets and some fracturingof policies by key players and regions. Data center sustainability commitments vary significantly, andnet-zero ambitions are not a given. Data from the 2024 S&PGlobal Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA) shows that38% of assessed companies with data center operations lack anet-zero commitment. Major tech firms have made net-zero commitments,including companies leading th