Investment banks are bearish on Coinbase, predicting a rise to $440.

Global Digital Assets Coinbase Global Inc. RatingOutperform Price Target 440.00 USD COIN COIN Q4: Nowhere to hide, but too 'cheap' to sell here COIN declared Q4 numbers. Q4 revenue missed estimates by 3%, with a 28% miss onadjusted EPS at $0.66. Full year adjusted EPS at $4.44 missed estimates by 4%, and adj. EBITDA at $2.8Bn missed by 2%. Unfortunately, with COIN fully exposed to crypto markets,there is nowhere to hide. It’s trading business volumes oscillate with crypto market sentimentand will be a while before new products (equities, prediction markets) diversify tradingrevenues. With a strong Balance sheet ($5.4Bn net cash & digital assets), COIN trades at ~11times EV/2025 LTM, and we still see the market recovering from here into 2026 & 2027. Hence, we would wait out the crypto volatility and take the pain here, rather than panic close 1. Total trading volumeon Coinbase, including both spot and derivatives, increased by >150% YoY in 2025 to $5.2Tn. Spot trading contributed $1.2Tn, with the remainderdriven by Deribit and Coinbase International Exchange. The blended take rate (retail andinstitutional) remained unchanged YoY at 32bps in 2025. ~21% of total volumes in Q4. Retail yield decreased from 143bps in Q3FY25 to 131bps inQ4FY25, reflecting a higher mix of advanced trading and increased volume from CoinbaseOne subscribers. For FY25, consumer trading volume rose 7% YoY to $236Bn, while the takerate declined from 155bps in FY24 to 141bps in FY25. 37% QoQ. As a result, the implied institutional yield increased from 5.7bps in Q3FY25 to 8.6bps in Q4FY25. Institutional revenue outperformance relative to spot volume was drivenby the Deribit acquisition(mid‑August),which delivered another quarter of record revenuein Q4 (volumes up 4% QoQ), along with continued expansion of the derivatives business.Continued on page 2... See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. DETAILS For FY25, institutional trading volume increased 2% YoY to $960Bn, with the implied take rate rising from 4bps in FY24 to5bps in FY25, reflecting the contribution of derivatives revenue that is not included in institutional volume figures. As a result,institutional trading revenue grew 39% YoY in 2025, outpacing volume growth. 1. Assets on platformdeclined 27% QoQ (-7% YoY) to $376Bn, primarily due to lower average crypto prices. Coinbasecontinues to hold ~12% of total crypto market capitalization on its platform. 2. Stablecoin revenuereached $364Mn, up 3% QoQ, supported by higher Average USDC Held in Coinbase products, whichincreased 18% QoQ to $17.8Bn. This was partially offset by lower effective interest rates on reserves following rate cuts inQ4FY25. For FY25, stablecoin revenue rose 48% YoY to $1.3Bn, reflecting continued expansion of USDC integration acrossthe platform. access to the new Coinbase One Card, which supported adoption of Coinbase One—particularly the $4.99/month basic tier.As a result, paid Coinbase One subscribers increased from 0.7mn in 2024 to ~1mn in 2025. This was partially offset by lowercustodial fee revenue due to softer average crypto prices. Financials 1. For Q4FY25, COIN reported $1.8Bn in revenue (5% QoQ decline), with transaction revenues down 6% QoQ. Subscription and services revenue declined 3% QoQ, with stablecoin revenues up 3% QoQ and blockchain rewards (staking) down 18% QoQ due to lower ETH and SOL prices. Adjusted operating expenses (excluding gains/losses on crypto held for operations) rose 4%sequentially, driven by costs related to the Deribit and Echo acquisitions and higher USDC rewards. This resulted in a 29% QoQdecline in adjusted EBITDA to $566Mn. Net loss for the quarter was $667Mn, reflecting a $718Mn unrealized loss on the cryptoinvestment portfolio and a $395Mn loss on strategic investments, leading to an adjusted net income of $178Mn. revenue (vs. 61% in 2024). Subscription and services revenue grew 23% YoY to $2.8Bn, supported by growth in stablecoin revenue (~50% of subscription and services). Coinbase now has 12 products with more than $100Mn in ARR, with primefinancing, retail derivatives, institutional derivatives, and the Base ecosystem exceeding this threshold in 2025. Adjustedoperating expenses increased by 32% YoY (driven by USDC rewards anddeal‑relatedexpenses), leading to a 16% YoY declinein adjusted EBITDA to $2.8Bn. Net income for FY25 was $1.3Bn (-50% YoY), impacted by unrealized losses on the crypto investment portfolio and strategic investments. portfolio). Management repurchased $1.7Bn of shares as the stock declined during Q4FY25 through early February. The company also secured an additional $2Bn in share repurchase authorization, intended for opportunistic deployment duringperiods of price dislocation. On M&A, 2025 marked a significant year with 10 transactions, including Deribit, and managementnoted it