宏观综述：穿越战争迷雾

Through the fog of war Marketsshifttheir attention to the risks around the Iranconflict but AI & the macro backdrop continue to weighheavily, especially for the US. Jennifer Cardilli*+1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.comBCI, US The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications formarkets and trending research. Jill Nentwig*+ 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.comBCI, US This week, PMG launched a new Barclays Live hub calledMiddle East Escalation.From risingregional tensions and military strikes, to shipping risks and oil price spikes - this hub unites ourcross-asset views, distilling key scenarios and portfolio implications across markets. Sharon Mutiti*+44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK Join ourIran escalationcall today at 7AM NYT for a timely discussion between BarclaysResearch and Markets for immediate views on the Iran conflict. PatrickCoffey*+44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK We are also featuring our Thursday Macro: Korea in focuscall on Thursday 05 March 2026 at7:45AM NYT. The tail risk of a sustained conflict in the Middle East is higher than in 2024 or 2025, thoughwe don’t see this conflict escalating to a point where it drastically changes the US outlook.However, rising Middle East tail risks raise the probability of a $100/bbl oil scenario, arguingfor caution on risk assets and patience before buying any near-term dips. The lack of macro data last week was filled by furtherAI-driven disruptionnarratives. Wethink the white-collar employment crisis scenario highlighted in the media is far-fetched atbest and logically inconsistent at worst. In the near term, thesoftwaresector remains in theeye of the AI storm, though there are signs of a potential turnaround. As markets open thisweek, our eyes turn to the weekend attacks in Iran. USPPI data was firmer than expected, but our estimates are unchanged (headline 2.4% Q4/Q4). Initial jobless claims held steady, while consumer confidence improved in Februaryalongside a reacceleration in house prices. We are well below consensus for nonfarm payrollsnext week (25k vs. 70k). Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks inthis publication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 11.Completed: 02-Mar-26, 10:33 GMTReleased: 02-Mar-26, 10:33 GMTRestricted - External High-frequency indicators continue to point to resilient momentum in theeuroarea.Consumer confidence edged higher (+0.2pt), with households more confident about theirfinancial situation. We do not expect recenttariffflip-flops to derail an EU-US trade deal.Bunds are enjoying their strongest start to the year since 2021, driven by bullish globalimpulses and despite better domestic data. We turn short German rates, expecting 10y bundyields to return to 2.85% on stronger growth. The keyUKdevelopment was the Green Party’s by-election win, which heightens politicaluncertainty and the risk of a leadership challenge within the Labour Party. UK consumerconfidence dipped in February amid fears of job losses. The probability of a new,housebuilder-funded government scheme remains undervalued. There is optimism aroundChina’sproperty outlook, but our analysis suggests any recovery islimited to select markets and may not be sustained. We expect the NPC to lower the GDPgrowth target to 4.5-5% and keep the budget deficit broadly flat at 4% of GDP. Focus is nowon the Trump-Xi meeting, which will help shape trade and broader policy. BoJPolicy Board nominations imply the Takaichi administration will continue to favour fiscalexpansion and accommodative monetary policy. JGBs twist-steepened and JPY weakened,reflecting concern over "high-pressure economy" policies. Aftera weak start to the year forFinancials,JPM’supdate was cautiously optimistic, albeitciting more macro risks than opportunities. More under-the-radar, we argue that this year’sunusually large tax refunds could quietly reinforce bank and broker fundamentals via higherdeposits, better margins, and incremental equity flows. Elsewhere,BDCsremain in focus; wehave a Barclays Live hub collating ourPrivate Creditinsights. Barclays Research Highlights Thinking Macro: "...and let slip the dogs of war..." The tail