风险、回报与现实：评估人工智能的影响

IndustrySoftware and IT Services TechnologyIT Software & Services Risks, Rewards and Realities: Assessingthe AI impact Tintin Stormont What growth rates are companies now discounting? Research Analyst+44-020-7541-1558 The majority of the companies in our coverage universe have been caught up in therecent sell-off triggered by fears of AI's impact on established business models inthe software and IT services space. Looking at the share price reactions, we believethere has been some, but not much, nuance applied. In this note, we summarise thekeydebate points for both software and IT services and provide specificconsiderations for each company in our coverage. Given the AI debate is largelyabout terminal values rather than near-term performance, we also ran a reverseDCF for each company (where applicable) to show what terminal free cash flowgrowth the current share price is discounting. Jasmine RandResearch Analyst+44-20-754-54676 Potential deflationary pressure from AI, but we see greater ability for incumbentsto defend their positions than what is priced in Whilst we do not subscribe to the more extreme "existential" threats of AI to theincumbents, we believe it is prudent to assume there could be deflationary pressureand potential margin erosion in the medium term. To combat this, incumbentcompanies must adapt quickly to evolve pricing models and to differentiate againstcommoditised AI capabilities. Strong defensibility lies in several key areas: insoftware, deep domain expertise, vast proprietary data sets, established trust andsecurity protocols, and long-standing customer relationships act as significantmoats; in IT services, firms can capitalise on the significant task of preparingenterprises for AI adoption, modernising digital cores, managing complex data,and guiding the implementation and management of agentic AI solutions. Key changes to target prices and recommendations In general, the changes we make are the result of the sector de-rating since we lastpublished in instances where peer valuation forms a key part of our valuationmethodology. We downgrade Cerillion to Hold, following a re-rating of shares afterthe Jan contract win amidst peer de-rating; upgrade Bytes to Buy (from Hold) aftera significant de-rating; and we reduce target prices across several companies in ourcoverage (see table below). This note does not alter our key picks in the sector for2026, which we published on 9 Dec 2025: Softcat, in our view, is as well-placed asever to benefit from the changes brought about by AI matched with an undisputedL-T track record of execution; GB Group for its recovery potential; Boku for its stronggrowth and relative resilience amidst the AI noise given its position in the paymentflow and everplay for its diverse portfolio and exciting pipeline through FY26/FY27. 3 March 2026IT Software & ServicesSoftware and IT Services Figure 1:Key changes to target prices and recommendations 3 March 2026IT Software & ServicesSoftware and IT Services AI debate front and centre..................................................4 Summary of key changes to recommendationsand target prices................................................................6 Valuation and Key Metrics..................................................9 Setting the scene: What are the perceived risksdriving the de-rating of the sector? ................................. 11 Software debate/ risk areas ............................................................................. 11Incumbent software vendor strengths/ defence..............................................12IT Services debate areas..................................................................................13IT services strengths/ defence ......................................................................... 14 Company Section.............................................................15 Reply - BUY, TP €130 (from €170)....................................................................15AutoStore - HOLD, TP NOK 14.........................................................................18Softcat - BUY, TP 1700p from 1900p...............................................................21Ocado - BUY, TP 310p......................................................................................24Kainos - HOLD, TP 860p (from 1040p).............................................................26Molten Ventures - BUY, TP 724p......................................................................30Eurowag - HOLD, TP 110p...............................................................................32Bytes - BUY from HOLD, TP 390p (from 470p) ................................................ 35Boku - BUY, TP 320p........................................................................................37GB Group - BUY, TP 415p (from 490p).............................................................40Cerillion - HOLD from BUY, TP 1,575p (from 1,760p)..................