汽车：1Q26汽车制造商的利润在折扣上升的压力下受压

1Q26carmakers’margins under pressureamid rising discounts We summarize the Feb 2026 price discounts at dealers for major automakersin this report. Note that Feb discounts for each automaker are calculatedbased on the weighted average of Jan 2026 retail sales volume for each ChinaAuto Sector Ji SHI, CFA(852) 3761 8728shiji@cmbi.com.hk On the surface, China’s industrywide average discounts remained flat in Feb2026 vs. Jan 2026 and Dec 2025 based on our calculations, as narrowerdiscountsfor German brands offset wider discounts for other brands.However, it was at the cost of BMW and Mercedes-Benz cutting theirmanufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) substantially for major modelsin Jan-Feb 2026. Although new orders post Chinese New Year appear to Wenjing DOU, CFA(852) 6939 4751douwenjing@cmbi.com.hk Austin Liang(852) 3900 0856austinliang@cmbi.com.hkStocks Covered: TheNEV trio and Leapmotor.In Feb 2026,Li Auto’s averagediscounts remained flat MoM at 5.3% (Figure 2), lower than 4Q25 amidahigher salescontributionfromthelow-discounti6in Jan-Feb 2026.Discountwidened by 3pptsfor thei8in Jan-Feb 2026, vs. 4Q25.Weexpect the discounts for thecurrentL-series to rise in the followingmonths,asthe redesigned models are scheduled to be rolled out in2Q26, starting from theL9.Xpeng’s average discounts rose 2.9pptsMoM to 5.7% in Feb (Figure 3) with wider discounts for all themodelsexcept therecently launchedEREVmodels. We believe Xpengnowneeds a newvolume driver,especially as theMona M03starts to be aging.NewSUVs under the Mona series could be crucial, in our view.NIO’s average discounts widened 0.1ppts MoM to 1.6% in Feb (Figure1), mainly due to higher discounts for theES6/EC6and theET5/ET5T. We expect discounts for these four models to increase in the next fewmonths.The OnvoL90still offers no discountdespiteits sales plunge.Leapmotor’s average discounts rose 1.1ppts MoM to 8.5% in Feb Geely. Geely’s average discounts at dealers rose0.8ppts MoM to13.1%inFeb(Figure 6),the highest at least since 2017, based on ourcalculations. TheGalaxyL7andA7PHEVs posted thelargest discountincreases (nearly 6ppts MoM) last month,likely due to the upcominglaunch of their successors, theGalaxy M7andXingyao 7PHEVs. Galaxybrand’s rebates for dealers also increased by about 4ppts in Jan-Feb2026 compared with 4Q25, according to our channel checks. Despite its Related Reports: “China Auto Sector-Eyes on new models fromMar after a weak start”–2 Mar 2026 Great Wall Motor.Great Wall’s average discounts at dealers rose0.4ppts MoM to 13.0% inFeb(Figure 5), as the high-discountDagou contributed a higher sales portion. Similar to Geely, Haval brand’srebates to dealers rose about 2ppts in Jan-Feb 2026 compared with4Q25, according to our channel checks, denting profitsin 1Q26. Great Wall’s first batch of new models this year, including the WeyV9X, BYD. BYD’s average discounts at dealers remained largely flat MoM at7.0% inFeb(Figure 7), which madeBYD’s rebates to dealers largely flatin Jan-Feb 2026 compared with 4Q25,according to our channel checks.It appears to us that BYD has put a higher priorityonpricing stability thansales volume growth since 3Q25.The companyis toshowcasethe 2nd-generation blade battery and flash charging technologies on 5 Mar 2026,which are expected to be equippedonmore new models. The ADAS and GAC Group.GAC Trumpchi’s average discounts at dealersrose2.8pptsto17.6% inFeb 2026 compared with Dec 2025(Figure 8),partly due toa higher sales contribution from the high-discountGS3. GAC Aion’saverage discounts at dealers rose 2.3ppts to 10.2% in Feb comparedwith Dec 2025(Figure 9), driven by the AionYandi60. Aion’s retail salesvolume continued to be volatile. Discounts at GAC Toyota rose 2.1ppts to 20.3% in Feb compared with Dec 2025(Figure 10), driven by theFrontlander,WildlanderandbZ3XEV.Discounts for thebZ3XEV havewidened to about 7% since Jan2026 compared with almost null onaverage in 2025. GAC Honda’s average discounts rose 0.6ppts to 24.9% BMW Brilliance.Discounts at BMW Brilliance further narrowed to 25.3%in Feb 2026, 4.2ppts lower than Jan 2026 and 7.8ppts lower than Dec2025(Figure 12). BMW cut MSRPs of almost all the major models byabout RMB60,000 from Jan 2026. That, along with slightly increasedtransaction prices, could turnBMW dealers'new-car gross margin(including commissions from auto finance and insurance) to positiveterritory, based on our estimates. We believe that a significant portion ofBMW dealers made a net loss last year, as we estimate the averagenew-car gross margin (including commissions from auto finance and Beijing Benz.Similar to BMW Brilliance, discounts at Beijing Benz alsofell by 5.1ppts MoM in Feb 2026(Figure 13). Mercedes-Benz followedsuit by cutting MSRPs for theC-Class,GLBandGLCby RMB33,700-62,500 from Feb 2026. We expect the margin lift forMercedes-Benzdealers to be milder than that for BMW dealers, as these three models Source:ThinkerCar, CMBIGM Source:ThinkerCar, CMBIGM Source:T