PMI在中汇贬值中减弱

PMI weakened amid CNY distortions Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’smanufacturing PMI showed broad-based softening in Feb amiddistortions fromtheChinese New Year(CNY). Demand and production bothdeteriorated, with new order index and export index both droppingto a newlow. Nevertheless, reflation continued as raw material and ex-factory pricesremained in expansion.Non-manufacturing PMIremained in contraction, asconstruction sites mostly suspended during CNY.Asoftening property market,weaker durablegoods sales, and slower manufacturing have pointed to fadinggrowthmomentum in early 2026.At tomorrow’s annual NPC meeting,policymakers may keep the broad fiscal deficit at around 8% of GDP, tounderpin the economy, including RMB5.9tn general budget deficit(4% of Manufacturing PMIdropped to another low amid CNY distortions. Manufacturing PMIedged down to49% inFebfrom49.3% inJan,belowmarket expectationsat 49.7%.Demand notably deteriorated, as new orderindex dropped to 48.6% in Feb from 49.2%, the biggest contraction sinceJuly 2023. New export order also declined to 45% in Feb from 47.8%,signaling the headwinds in exports heading into 2026.Production fell backinto contraction at 49.6%. Reflation continuedas raw materials purchase Non-manufacturing PMIremained in contraction.Non-manufacturingPMI edged up to 49.5% in Feb from 49.4%, below market expectation at50%.Service PMIedged up to49.7% from 49.5%,while neworder indexdropped to45.7% from47.1%.Price index ofinputandfinal salepicked up,indicatingthe reflation process also sustained in the service sector.Breaking down by sector,activities related to tourism and holiday Eyes on the national Two Sessions for additional stimulus.A softeningproperty market, weaker durable goods sales, and slower manufacturinghave pointed to fading growth momentum in early 2026. At tomorrow’sannual NPC meeting, policymakers may keep the broad fiscal deficit ataround 8% of GDP, to underpin the economy, including RMB5.9tn generalbudgetdeficit(4%of GDP),RMB1.3tn ultra-long central governmentspecial bonds(0.9%), and RMB4.5tn local government special bonds Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content ofthis research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer;and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in thecode of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad marketbenchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate