巴西柑橘年度报告

Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Report Name:Citrus Annual Country:BrazilPost:BrasiliaReport Category:Citrus PreparedBy:Carolina Castro Approved By:Joseph Degreenia Report Highlights: The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26 is forecast at 330 million 90-pound boxes(MBx)-standard reference, equivalent to 13.5 million metric tons(MMT), an increase of 3.7 percentcompared to previous Post estimate (320 million boxes or 13 MMT), primarily due to satisfactoryweather conditions expected in 2026. Post forecasts the Brazilian FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production in THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY FRESHORANGES PS&DTable ThefollowingtableprovidesdataforBrazilianfreshorangeproduction,supply,anddistribution(PS&D)forBrazilian(BR)marketingyears(MY,July-June)2024/25,2025/26,and2026/27.TheMY Production PostforecaststhetotalBrazilianorangecropforMY2025/26(July/June)at330million40.8-kgboxes(MBx)-standardreferenceequivalentto90pounds-or13.5millionmetrictons(MMT).Thisisanincreaseof3.7percentcomparedtothePostestimateforMY2024/25(320millionboxesor13MMT), AccordingtoPostcontacts,despitetheincidenceofgreening,MY2025/26cropisprojectedtoperformwell,especiallyiforchardsbenefitfrommildertemperatures,withlittleexpectedvariation. Thecitrusbelt,whichiscomposedofthenorthwestofSãoPaulostateandthewesternpartofMinasGeraisstate,knownas“TriânguloMineiro”,isthemainproductionregioninBrazil.TheMY2024/25orangecropforecastforthecitrusbelt,releasedonDecember10,2025,byFundecitrusincollaboration AccordingtoFundecitrus,theMY2024/25orangeharvestbeganwithtwoprimaryblooms,withthesecondbloomplayingacriticalroleincropdevelopment.Below-averagerainfallandslowerfruitmaturationmarkedtheearlymonths,butconditionsimprovedbylate2025,enhancingfruitquality,Brix-to-acidityratios,andsensoryattributesofthejuice.Whilegreeningremainsaconcern,theoutlook FromMaytoNovember2025,totalrainfallinthecitrusbeltreached392mm,20percentbelowthe1991–2020average.AccordingtoFundecitrus,thecitrusbeltexperienceddrier-than-normalconditionsduringthefirstninemonthsof2024,aperiodcriticalfororangetreeflowering.Duringthisperiod, InBrazil,approximately20percentoforangeproductionissoldasfreshfruit(innatura),whiletheremaining80percentisprocessedforjuice.ThemainorangevarietiesthatBrazilproducesareHamlim,Westin,Rubi,ValenciaAmericana,Seleta,Pineapple,BRSAlvorada,PeraRio-pearorange,Valencia, Figure 1 shows the history of orange production in the Brazilian citrusbelt, reflectingsignificantoscillations over the course of twenty-five years. Production ranged from436million40.8-Kg/90-poundboxes (18.36 MMT) in BR MY 1999/2000 to the estimated294million (12MMT) BR MY 2025/26, aprojecteddecrease of 32 percentfrom the previous harvest (BRMY 2024/25), due to fruit drop and According to the latest estimates from Fundecitrus, the average weight of fruit is 4 grams lower thanprojected in September. As a result, the number of oranges required to fill a 40.8 kg box has increased The southwestregion(Itapetininga and Avaré) leads with 1,103 boxes/hectare, up 23 percent from lastseason, likely maintaining top status, according to Fundecitrus. The most challenging area isnorthwestregion(Votuporanga and São José do Rio Preto), with low yield at 552 boxes/hectare, still16 percent September 2025rainfall in key citrus regions of São Paulo and Minas Gerais helped induce flowering incertainorchards, but the volume remainedinsufficient to offset the ongoing water deficit.October2025rains begun improving conditions for orange trees and preparing them for next season’s blooms,according totheCenter for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics(Cepea).Mid-season oranges, Source:NOAA/CPC ArecentNOAAreportindicatesthatalthoughLaNiñaiscurrentlyweak,itisexpectedtocontinueinfluencingBrazil’sclimatethroughearlysummer2025.ThephenomenonwilllikelybringincreasedrainfalltotheCenter-WestandSoutheastregions,mildertemperaturesalongthecoast,andmore AccordingtoPostcontacts,weatherconditionsin2025weregenerallystable,whichsupportedstrongcropproduction.However,thecitrusbeltfacesongoingdryspells,heatwaves,andrisingtemperaturesfromLaNiña,expectedtolastuntilMarch2026.Thepastfiveyearshavealsoseenhightemperatures, Bymid-2026,thelikelihoodofElNiño-typicallyassociatedwithhotterweatherandirregularrainfallinBrazil-beginstorise,potentiallybecomingdominantin2027.Thiscouldsignificantlyalterrainfallpatternsandtemperatures,makingitessentialforBrazilianfarmersandtomonitorupdatesandprepare ClimatemporeportsthatrainfallinBrazil’scitrusbeltfromMaytoAugust2025averaged94mm,33percentbelowthehistoricalaverage(1991-2020),exceptinSãoJosédoRioPreto,whichsaw21percentabove-averageprecipitation.Despitethis,AprilandJunerainsprovidedsufficientsoilmoisture,keepingtheweightofearlyvarietieslikeHamlin,Westin,andRubistableat134g(305fruitsperbox). Withinthecitrusbeltregions,in2025,onlyPortoFerreiraexceededhistoricalrainfalllevels;allotherregionsfellshort.TheNorthexp