中国汽车行业：加速全球扩张，阻碍何在？

Chinese Autos: Accelerating Global Expansion—What’s holding Overseas expansion has become a top strategic focus for Chinese OEMs as domesticdemand softens and competition intensifies. In our recent report (LINK), we assess the scaleof opportunities across key regions. Chinese OEMs’ significant strengths in scale, technology,and cost structure have made China a global EV leader. However, they must still overcome Eunice Lee, CFA+852 2123 2606eunice.lee@bernsteinsg.com Mika Fu+852 2166 4805mika.fu@bernsteinsg.com Chinese OEMs benefit from scale advantage, technology leadership, and costcompetitiveness.China’s EV penetration reached 53% for full year 2025 and approached 60% by year-end, far ahead of Europe at c.25% and the U.S. at c.10%, and accounted for64% of global EV sales. Chinese EVs lead in range and efficiency, and operate with a coststructure roughly half of Western OEMs. These advantages have allowed Chinese OEMs to Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com But Chinese OEMs still face several challenges abroad.Brand perception and lowawareness remain major hurdles, as some consumers—especially in developed markets—still question the safety, quality, and resale value. International management capability isalso limited, with decision-making remaining too China-centric and sometimes too slow forfragmented, fast-changing overseas markets. Distribution and after-sales networks are stillimmature. Competition is intensifying both from incumbents and fellow Chinese players. In2025, Chinese brands reached 9% market share in Europe, but across 20 brands backed Stronger brand equity and operational execution are crucial. Brand building mustbe a top priority.This includes a coherent long-term brand strategy, locally tailoredmarketing, and disciplined pricing. Empowering strong local management teams enablesfaster decisions. Local production and localized design will help Chinese OEMs bettermeet local expectations, as proven by the Japanese and Korean brands. Equally importantis building robust distribution partnerships and after-sales networks. Unlike in China— BYD is best positioned to be the global EV champion. The company benefits fromsignificantly stronger brand awareness and offers the broadest EV portfolios globally.Its vertical integration capability supports its rapid product-iteration, and it has alreadystarted tailoring offerings to specific markets. For e.g., the Shark pickup is designed forLATAM and Oceania and not sold in China. That said, BYD still needs to strengthen dealerrelationships, deepen localization in production and marketing, and better navigate cultural BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain a cautious outlook for the Chinese Autos sector entering 2026. The reduction in subsidies and a 5% purchasetax hike on EVs are expected to dampen demand. This follows significant demand being pulled forward into 2024-2025 anda high comparison base, while macro headwinds and weak consumer sentiment persist. The industry will also face pressurefrom material cost inflation headwinds. We expect industry wholesale volumes to reach 28-29 mn units, falling 4-8% yoy. We The long term secular growth outlook for EVs remains intact and even though EV transition has come to the mass adoptionphase in China, we forecast domestic EV sales growth will be c.5-10% for 2026 and drive EV penetration to 61%. We believecompetition within the domestic market will remain intense and overseas markets are increasingly important as a strategicgrowth opportunity. For our EV names, we rateBYD and Xiaomi Outperform, andXPeng, Li Auto, NIO Market-Perform. RELATED RESEARCH: 26 Jan 2026 - Chinese Autos: The Long View — Accelerating Global Expansion 12 Dec 2025 - China Autos Export Tracker: Q3 2025 accelerates with +23% yoy in shipment; PHEV leads the charge, surging+242% yoy18 Nov 2025 - BYD vs. Toyota: Can BYD become the next Toyota?9 Jun 2025 - Electric Revolution: Divergence — China's path to leading EV adoption, blueprint for global electrification efforts VALUATION COMPS TABLEASIAN AUTOS Table Of Contents Scale, technology, and cost advantages position Chinese OEMs for overseas success................................................................................ 4Challenges to address for Chinese brands to reach full international potential................................................................................................8Strategies to boost brand perception and operational excellence abroad...................................................................................................... 11 DETAILS SCALE, TECHNOLOGY, AND COST ADVANTAGES POSITION CHINESE OEMS FOR OVERSEAS SUCCESS Overseas expansion has become a top strategic priority for Chinese OEMs as domestic demand softens and competitionintensifies. In our recent report(Chinese Autos: The Long View — Accelerating Global Expansion), we assess the scale ofopportunities across key regions. We project Chinese bra