European Central Bank's Monetary Analyst Survey (SMA) February 2026 Summary Results

Aggregated Results Contents 1Key ECB interest rates, market rates and market conditions2Asset purchases and reinvestment Summary Report This report summarises the aggregated results of the Survey of Monetary Analysts(SMA) ofFebruary 2026. The survey period was from 19 to 21 January 2026 and 73 For questions that received responses from fewer than six respondents no Throughout the document, the cross-sectional distribution is defined as thedistribution of the modal answers, and the average probability distribution is defined This report uses abbreviations for key monetary policy parameters. For additionalspecific terminology please refer to theECB glossary. The survey questionnaire and more information is available at:https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/sma/html/index.en.html Key ECB interest rates, market rates 1.1In the first part of the table, please indicate your interestrate expectations for the reserve maintenance period Expectations for the DFR Expectations for the MRO Expectations for the MLF Expectations for the €STR Expectations for the 3-month Euribor Please indicate the percentage probabilities that youattach to the following possible changes in the DFR at Please indicate your expectations for the swap rate orbond yield of the following financial instruments at the Expectations for the 10-year OIS (based on €STR) Expectations for the German 10-year government bond Expectations for the French 10-year government bond Expectations for the Italian 10-year government bond 2Asset purchases and reinvestment Please provide your expectations for the Eurosystemstock of bonds under the APP and the PEPP at the end Expectations for the Eurosystem stock of bonds under the PEPP Please indicate how likely you think it is that the TPI willbe first activated within the time periods indicated below. 3Refinancing operations Please provide your expectations for the outstandingamounts of refinancing operations distinguishing between 4Macroeconomic outlook Please provide your forecasts for the euro area real GDPgrowth, unemployment rate, HICP inflation and HICP Expectations for unemployment rate Median expected HICP inflation rates How would you characterise the current level of euro This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered When do you estimate that the output gap closed, or will close? This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered What is your estimate, in percentage points, of the euro areaoutput gap in the current quarter? (If not available, leave blank.) This question is currently being piloted. The publication of results will be considered Please indicate the percentage probability you attach toaverage annual euro area HICP inflation being below or Please assign percentage probabilities to annual euroarea HICP inflation falling into the following intervals in How do you assess the risks surrounding your forecasts © European Central Bank, 2026 Postal address60640 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyTelephone+49 69 1344 0Websitewww.ecb.europa.eu Copyright for the entire content of this document is held by the ECB. No content may be copied, reproduced or reduced, except with theECB’s prior written consent. Any copies, reproductions or reductions to the writing shall be the property of the ECB. This document shallonly be used for the purpose of the Survey of Monetary Analysts and shall not be used or exploited for own benefit, or for the benefit ofany other person or party. For specific terminology please refer to theECB glossary(available in English only).