亚洲经济笔记：印美贸易协定的宏观影响

3 February 2026Date Macro implications of India-USA trade Kaushik DasChief Economist On 2 Feb 2026, President Trump announced a long-awaited trade deal with India,cutting tariff rates on Indian exports from 25% to 18% and effectively scrapping theadditional 25% punitive duty. President Trump said the move followed India’sagreement to stop buying Russian oil. Indeed, India reduced its oil purchases fromRussia significantly in December (29% month-on-month reduction to the lowestvolumes since the implementation of the price cap policy). Last August, the USadministration had imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, including an additional * Sentiment booster:Indian stock markets have rallied sharply (up 3% on theovernight news), helping INR to also appreciate vs. the USD below 90.50 levels on 3 Feb, from close to 92 levels seen on 30thJanuary. This is not surprising as Indianequity markets have seen outflows of USD 3.3 bn from FIIs in Jan'26 alone and a cumulative USD 13.8 bn outflows over the last 12 months. India-EU FTA, signed on27 Jan 2026 (see, "India-EU FTA: "Mother of all deals", 27 Feb 2026), came as apositive trigger at a crucial time, and sentiment is likely to get a further boost now,with India securing a trade deal with the USA as well. * India's bilateral trade with the USA, EU, China:The USA is India's second-largesttrading partner after the EU. India's bilateral merchandise trade with the EU wasUSD 136.5 bn in FY25, with exports at USD 75.9 bn, and imports at USD 60.7 bn.This was higher than with the USA at USD 130.1 bn and China at USD 127.7 bn. Theshare of India's exports to the EU stood at around 17.2% in FY25, lower than the Recent trade data shows that the US, Europe and China together constitute 44% ofIndia's total exports, while India imports 35% of its total requirement from thesethree destinations currently.With India having secured a trade deal with both theEU and the USA, and given that the commercial relationship with China is on the Source : CEIC, Deutsche Bank. Note: Dotted lines refer to DB forecast * Trade policy of "Multi-alignment" and "strategic autonomy":Also, India is rapidlyfinalizing bilateral and regional deals to reduce over-reliance on any single market.Over the past five years, India has signed seven Free Trade Agreements (FTA) andComprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements with key global partnersincluding Australia. In 2025, new deals with the UK, Oman and New Zealand weresigned, while the EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein) trade pact * Good news for consumers:FTAs and ongoing supply-side reforms are likely toboost consumption and foster competition and productivity, in our view. As India'sweighted average tariff rate falls due to various FTAs with key economic blocks, itmay turn out to be beneficial for Indian consumers over the medium-term. It couldhelpusher in more competition among domestic industries by reducingprotectionism, which in turn might lead to structurally lower inflation pressure, * Growth:The latest Economic Survey pegged India's real GDP growth in the 6.8-7.2% range for FY27, but Chief Economic Advisor Dr. Nageswaran mentioned in aBloomberg TV interview (3 Feb), that growth could be closer to 7.4% after the deal,similar to the FY26 forecast. RBI's current growth forecast for FY27 is 6.6%yoy. If the RBI were to raise its FY27 growth forecast to 7% or above in the 6thFeb monetary policy meeting, in line with the recent Economic Survey estimate of 6.8-7.2%, whileretaining its 4.5% inflation outlook, this would be seen as a hawkish signal. On 27Feb, the CSO will release a new GDP series with an updated base year and revised * BOP and rupee:India's current account deficit, expected at 1.0% of GDP orUSD45.5 bn in FY27, remains low, but the problem is on the capital account side,with net FDI having fallen sharply due to capital repatriation and FII outflowspersisting thus far.The India-EU FTA and India-USA trade deal may well prove tobe a turning point to this negative dynamic, in our view.We expect the BOPposition to improve modestly in FY27 and FY28, from the current and previous fiscalyear (see, "India Special Report: Keep The Faith", 6 Jan 2026) . In our view, if capitalflows improve meaningfully, in the coming months, due to the trade deals and US-India trade relationship India's trade surplus with the US:India runs a trade surplus with the USA thatincreased from USD11bn in FY13 to USD36bn by FY24 and further to USD42.7bn(1.1% of GDP) in FY25. In FY26 thus far (Apr-Dec'25), India's trade surplus with theUSA has touched USD26.5 bn, up 5.5%yoy, with exports to the USA increasing9.8%yoy vs. imports from the USA growing 12.9%yoy.The 9.8%yoy growth in Latest monthly trade data show that India's exports to the USA declined -1.8%yoy in Dec.While monthly data is volatile, we find that India's exports to the USA sloweddown sharply to 0.6%yoy between Aug-Dec'25 vs. 23.5%yoy robust growthrecorded between Jan-July'25, before the 5