下一代竞争的主要领域

The nextbig arenas ofcompetition Arenas are industries that transform the business landscape.Eighteen future arenas could reshape the global economy andgenerate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040. AuthorsChris BradleyMichael ChuiKevin RussellKweilin EllingrudMichael BirshanSuhayl Chettih EditorMax Berley Data visualizationChuck Burke Confidential and proprietary. Any use ofthis material without specific permission ofMcKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited. Copyright © 2024 McKinsey & Company.All rights reserved.Cover image: Large stadium lights© ZargonDesign/Getty Images McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute was established in 1990. Our mission is to provide a fact base toaid decision making on the economic and business issues most critical to the world’s companiesand policy leaders. We benefit from the full range of McKinsey’s regional, sectoral, and functionalknowledge, skills, and expertise, but editorial direction and decisions are solely the responsibilityof MGI directors and partners. Our research is currently grouped into five major themes: —Productivity and prosperity: Creating and harnessing the world’s assetsmost productively—Resources of the world: Building, powering, and feeding the world sustainably—Human potential: Maximizing and achieving the potential of human talent—Global connections: Exploring how flows of goods, services, people, capital, andideas shape economies—Technologies and markets of the future: Discussing the next big arenas of valueand competition We aim for independent and fact-based research. None of our work is commissioned or funded byany business, government, or other institution; we share our results publicly free of charge; and weare entirely funded by the partners of McKinsey. While we engage multiple distinguished externaladvisers to contribute to our work, the analyses presented in our publications are MGI’s alone, andany errors are our own. You can find out more about MGI and our research atwww.mckinsey.com/mgi. MGI Directors MGI Partners Sven Smit (chair)Chris BradleyKweilin EllingrudSylvain JohanssonNick LeungOlivia White Mekala KrishnanAnu MadgavkarJan MischkeJeongmin SeongTilman Tacke Contents At a glance4Introduction6Executive summary8 Chapter one. The arenas of today17Chapter two. The arena-creation potion37Chapter three. The arenas of tomorrow55 Arenas of tomorrow compendium83 1. E-commerce852. Artificial intelligence software and services893. Cloud services934. Electric vehicles975. Digital advertising1066. Semiconductors1147. Shared autonomous vehicles1198. Space1259. Cybersecurity13210. Batteries13711. Modular construction14412. Streaming video14913. Video games15414. Robotics16115. Industrial and consumer biotechnology16716. Future air mobility17417. Drugs for obesity and related conditions17918. Nuclear fission power plants185 Acknowledgments191Endnotes192Technical appendix200 At a glance —Arenas are a unique category of industries defined by two characteristics: high growth anddynamism.They capture an outsize share of the economy’s growth, and the market shares ofplayers within them change to an outsize degree. —We have identified 18 potential arenas of the future that could reshape the global economy,generating $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenues by 2040.These arenas range from AIsoftware and services to cybersecurity, from future air mobility to drugs for obesity and relatedconditions, and from robotics to nonmedical biotechnology These future arenas could generate$2 trillion to $6 trillion in profit by 2040. Their collective share of global GDP could increase from4 percent to 10 to 16 percent by 2040. —Twelve arenas of today showed outsize growth and dynamism from 2005 to 2020.Theseindustries include e-commerce, biopharma, electric vehicles, consumer internet, and cloudservices. They had a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 percent and marketcapitalization CAGR of 16 percent, and they tripled their global GDP share from 3 to 9 percent inthe period. By contrast, non-arenas had only a 4 percent revenue CAGR and a 6 percent marketcap CAGR over the same period. —The many striking differences between the 12 arenas of today and non-arenas inform ourunderstanding of the arenas of the future.Arenas earn far greater profits than other industriesdo, they spawn a disproportionate number of global giants, and they offer unusually strongopportunities for new entrants to become powerhouses. —Three combined ingredients in an “arena-creation potion” tend to generate the escalatorymode of competition that characterizes arenas.The telltale elements of a forming arenaare business model or technological step changes, escalatory investments, and a large and/orgrowing addressable market. The presence of these elements can lead to escalatory competitionamong players, who make large investments to gain not only market share but also a productquality edge, compounding the benefits and further sett