Savings and Investment Union (SIU) and its impact on exchanges

SIU, FYI SIGNATURE We ask, what is the Savings & Investment Union (SIU) & howcould it impact exchanges? Our detailed scenario analysisacross the trade life cycle suggests it could add 6-22% to ENXEPS (4x more than DB1), but patience is required as benefits ENX.PA/ENX FPEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedEuropean DiversifiedFinancialsPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 140.00UnchangedPrice (05-Feb-26)EUR 116.10Potential Upside/Downside+20.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Listen We would appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2026 Extel Developed Europe Research Survey inthe category Specialty & Other Finance. View our analysts → Vote for Barclays → Market Cap (EUR mn)12038Shares Outstanding (mn)103.69Free Float (%)75.3152 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.3Dividend Yield (%)2.48Return on Equity TTM (%)15.30Current BVPS (EUR)42.34Source: Bloomberg With this note we transfer lead coverage of Euronext to Grace Dargan. •The Savings and Investment Union ('SIU') - driving deeper, more liquid Europeanmarkets:The SIU is Europe's plan to develop a moreefficientfinancial system through retailengagement and improving market scale/integration. The end-game is to support deeper and •We model SIU benefits - >20% earnings opportunity for ENX:We lay out scenarios,illustratively showing the SIU couldadd 6-22% to EPS at Euronext and 1-6% at DeutscheBörse.We consider scenarios across the full trade life cycle, including increased primaryissuance, higher trading/clearing volumes and moreefficientsettlement/custody services. Wealso consider Euronext's central securities depository (CSD) expansion; although itis challenging in an ICSD-dominated market, we see scope for market share gains if Euronextcan achieve its ICSD-styleofferingat a lower domestic CSD cost. All else equal, our central European Diversified Financials Our SIU plug-and-play model to input your own assumptions is available upon request. Grace Dargan+44 (0)20 3555 4065grace.dargan@barclays.comBarclays, UK But SIUupliftunlikely to be a material benefit in the next 3 years - so we remain EW ENX:Whilst the SIU could be a significant tailwind to Euronext's earnings, benefits are unlikely tobe materially realised during our investment horizon (given the pace of reg change and time Michael Sanderson+44 (0)20 3134 2487michael.sanderson@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this Claudia Gaspari+44 (0)20 3134 6039claudia.gaspari@barclays.comBarclays, UK This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 30.Completed: 06-Feb-26, 23:02 GMTReleased: 09-Feb-26, 04:00 GMT for resultanteffectsto come to fruition). Beyond the SIU, we also think Euronext has fewerlevers for organic growth than peers given their less diversified revenue mix. Together, we seelimited upside to our estimates in 26/27E vs cons (evenaftercapturing modest near-term SIUbenefits). Further, though valuation may initially appear attractive (17.3x 26e BARCe EPS), the 4Q25 preview - ATHEX and 2026 guidance in focus:We look for adjusted earnings broadlyin line with consensus, including 5 weeks of ATHEX, but we expect heavier exceptionalsrelating to the acquisition. We expect new guidance, notably FY26E costs (we look for €710m Estimate changes:We tweak near-term estimates slightly (with reported EPS flat in 2025E and+1% in 2026E). We increase EPS by 5% in 2027/28E, predominantly reflecting the ATHEXacquisition (see below) and a modest benefit from SIU implementation. We maintain our price European Diversified Financials The Story in 6 Charts FIGURE 1. We illustratively show the SIU could add 6-22% to EuronextEPS in the long-term... FIGURE 4. Despite the dominance of ICSDs, there is scope for ENXshare gains if it can execute on its lower-cost, domestic CSD FIGURE 5. Valuation may appear attractive, but we the gap vs peershas already significantly closed... 1. Euronext investment case - we are Equal Weight Scope for significant earnings benefits, but it will take time SIU has the potential to be a significant opportunity for Euronext, but could be a longtime coming:As shown in our analysis below, we think Euronext is best positioned amongour covered exchanges to benefit from the SIU (our scenarios suggest a significant +6-22% toEPS, 4x more than Deutsche Börse). However, we don't think these benefits will likely be Less diversified revenue than peers may limit scope for growth:Euronext is one of theleading cash equities exchanges in Europe and is dominant in that space. However, althoughwork has been done to broaden its revenue mix (both in te