中国制造业采购经理人指数季刊 2026年1月 第63期

PMI4Q25Recovery after early slump in themanufacturing sector Policy OutlookChinatoramp uppolicy supportin1Q26 1Q26ForecastsGDPgrowthtopick upto4.6%yoywhile PMI tofluctuate around 50.0 HKUST Li & FungSupply Chain Institute Helen Chinhelenchin@ust.hk William Kongwilliamkong@ust.hk Chen ZhongTaoczt@clic.org.cn Helen ChinE: helenchin@ust.hk PMI points torecovery after early slump inthe manufacturing sector in 4Q25 William KongE: williamkong@ust.hk Our observations •Large enterprisesarerecoveringafteranearly slump,while small and mediumenterprises continue to contract.•Manufacturing outputhasresumedexpansion.•Overall market demandis recovering.•Manufacturersareloweringex-factory pricesdespiterisinginputcosts.•Employment inthemanufacturing sectorhas seen aslightdecline. HKUST Li & FungSupply Chain InstituteLSK Business BuildingThe Hong Kong University ofScience & TechnologyClear Water BayKowloon,Hong KongE: ustlfsci@ust.hk Policy outlook •The Central Economic Work Conferencehasset the tone for China’s macro policiesin 2026 as ‘more proactive and impactful’.•The meeting reiteratedthat China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscalpolicyanda moderately loose monetary policy.•We expect the Chinese governmenttoramp up policy support in1Q26, which willhelp the economy grow steadily. Chen ZhongTao Our forecasts for1Q26 czt@clic.org.cnChina Federation ofLogistics& Purchasing •We projectastable growthinmanufacturing production.Whileacontinuedimprovement in external demandis positive, a high comparison base from the sameperiod last year will keep the VAIO growth rate moderate.•HeadlinePMIwillfluctuate around 50.0 due to distortionsfromthe Chinese New Yearholiday.•VAIO growthwill come in at5.0% yoy.•Real GDP growthwillpick up to4.6% yoy.•Exports willexperiencealow single-digit growth.•Year-on-year growth rates for the purchaser price index and the PPIwillremainnegative but improveslightly, as the Chinese governmentprioritizesaddressingoverproduction inkey sectors. IN THIS ISSUE: PMI points torecovery after early slump in the manufacturingsector in 4Q254 What the PMI tells us about the performance of enterprises ofdifferent sizes8 What the PMI tells us about manufacturing production9 What the PMI tells us about overall market demand11 What the PMI tells us about upstream and midstream prices13 What the PMI tells us about manufacturing employment16 1. PMI points torecoveryafter early slumpinthe manufacturing sector in4Q25 We project that China’sreal GDP growth willpick up to 4.6% yoy in1Q26. This growth will bedriven by continuedexpansion in exports andindustrial production,although it will betempered by a highcomparison base fromthe same period lastyear. China’s manufacturing sector in4Q25 TheChina–US trade warcontinued toexertpressure onChina’s exports andmanufacturingproduction, withChina’smanufacturing PMIdroppingto 49.0 in Octoberandremaininglow at 49.2in November.However,asthe two countriesreacheda tradewar trucein late Octoberandcuttariff ratesstarting10 November,China’sheadline PMIreboundedto 50.1 in December,marking itsreturn to expansionaryterritoryforthe firsttimesince March 2025. Thislatest index readingindicatesa recovery inthemanufacturingsector.(See exhibit1) After a slight contraction inOctober, manufacturing output hassincerecovered,with theoutput index risingfrom 49.7 in Octoberto 50.0inNovemberand further to 51.7inDecember. This recent growth was supported by improved overall market demand, asthe new orders index increased from 48.8inOctoberto 49.2inNovember,and reacheda nine-month high of50.8inDecember. Prices of industrial productscontinued to decline,withthe ex-factory prices indexremainingbelow thecritical50-markthroughout the quarter.Meanwhile,materialpricesrose further, as the input prices indexstayedabove50fromOctoberto December. Exhibit 2 shows the contributions of the sub-indices to the change in the headline PMI.Thereboundin the headline PMIsinceOctoberwasprimarilydriven byincreasesinthenew ordersindex(which weighs30% in the computation of the headline PMI) andtheoutputindex(which weighs25%).Among the 12 sub-indices (excluding the suppliers’delivery time index),the indicesofinput prices andbusiness expectationsremainedinexpansionary zonethroughout the quarter.In contrast, the indices ofnew export orders,backlogs of orders, stocks of finished goods, stocks of major inputs,imports,ex-factoryprices,and employmentremainedin contractionary zoneduring the same period. (Seeexhibit 3) Policy outlook The Central Economic Work Conferencetook placeon 10-11December 2025, settingthe tone forChina’smacro policies in 2026as‘more proactive andimpactful’.Regardingeconomic workforthis year, the meetingemphasized the importance ofpursuingprogress whilemaintainingstabilityand improving quality and efficiency.Thegovernment shouldleveragethe integrated effects ofbothexisting and new policies,increasecounter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and enhancethe effectivenes