塔吉克斯坦国家评估：全球减灾与灾后恢复基金（英）

Preface TheGlobal Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery(GFDRR) is a glob-al partnership that helps low- and middle-income countries better under-stand and reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. This report is the first GFDRR Country Evaluation. A GFDRR Country Evaluation isintended to promote evidence-based accountability and improve performanceby learning through experience, helping GFDRR to understand if any why it isachieving the results it intends through its programs. The evaluation coversGFDRR activities related to Tajikistan approved over 2015-2024, and assessesthe relevance, coherence, and effectiveness of GFDRR activities. This evaluation is based on a desk review of GFDRR grant progress and com-pletion reports, and World Bank project documents including project apprais-al documents, implementation and supervision reports, and implementationcompletion and results reports, and on interviews with 20 World Bank staff, andgovernment officials from 10 agencies. The evaluation included a mission toDushanbe, Tajikistan, in February 2025, to interview government counterpartsand World Bank local staff. We are grateful for the support from the Govern-ment of Tajikistan and the World Bank country management unit in welcomingand hosting the mission. The evaluation coversGFDRR activitiesrelated to Tajikistanapproved over 2015-2024, and assessesthe relevance,coherence, andeffectiveness ofGFDRR activities. The evaluation is carried out under the supervision of Niels Holms-Nielsen,Manager, GFDRR, and by task team leader Stephen Hutton, Senior Monitoringand Evaluation Specialist, with support from Sara Feria, Disaster Risk Manage-ment Analyst. Executive summary This evaluation assesses the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction andRecovery (GFDRR) support to Tajikistan over 2015-2024. Tajikistan is highlyvulnerable to disasters caused by natural hazards and to climate changedue to its topography and limited adaptive capacity. GFDRR has approved 13grants for Tajikistan since 2015, with commitments of $4.3 million, of which$3.9 million had been disbursed as of February 2025. It also provided supportthrough 6 regional grants and global thematic areas. GFDRR’s grants were relevant to disaster risk management (DRM), GFDRR’s objec-tives, and Tajikistan’s needs. These grants catalyzed the World Bank’s DRM programin Tajikistan, and helped to prioritize DRM across the Bank’s portfolio. Before thefirst GFDRR engagement in 2015, the Bank had almost no DRM activity in Tajik-istan—since then, the Bank has built a sizeable portfolio of projects supportingDRM across sectors including disaster preparedness, transport, energy, education,and social development. The initial DRM project in Tajikistan used substantial grantresources, but supported effective project delivery in a low capacity context. GFDRRresources helped to ensure sustained and continuous engagement on DRM, andbroadened and deepened the engagement, funding analytical activities that wouldnot have otherwise occurred. GFDRR’s flexible demand-driven approach helped toensure the strategic relevance of funded activities. Murghab school. Photo: Frizi Before the firstGFDRR engagementin 2015, the Bankhad almost no DRMactivity in Tajikistan—since then, theBank has built asizeable portfolio ofprojects supportingDRM across sectorsincluding disasterpreparedness,transport, energy,education, and socialdevelopment. There has not been a top-down strategic approach to Bank engagement onDRM in Tajikistan, in part because rotation and staff changes made this difficultto develop and sustain. However, it is not clear that the lack of a unified strategycauses problems, because the program is aligned with the World Bank CountryPartnership Framework for Tajikistan, which drives the World Bank’s strategiccoherence. GFDRR grants enabled an integrated approach to disaster risk man-agement across multiple pillars and sectors. GFDRR activities have contributed to and are continuing to contribute to sub-stantial improvements in disaster resilience in Tajikistan. They have substantial-ly improved the quality of DRM support through World Bank lending operations,and government counterparts expressed their appreciation for GFDRR supportand interest in continued engagement. The main benefit from GFDRR supporthas been to support project design and delivery for Bank projects, but sustain-ing enhanced capacity gained by these projects faces challenges given highturnover of government officials. The improvements in disaster resilience also reflect substantial development benefits and improvements in the lives of disas-ter-vulnerable people, including improvements in connectivity, access to elec-tricity, and rural services. GFDRR funded activities improved the use of evidence and knowledge forrisk-informed decision making, especially for infrastructure and disaster pre-paredness. GFDRR contributed to substantial achievements in reducing risk and main-streamin