全球存储技术：对1Q/2Q平均售价和利润的乐观情绪上升，上调全球预测

Weekly theme: Rising optimism for 1Q/2QASPs and profits; lift global forecasts Industry Overview 21 February 2026 Memory sales likely to remain upbeat in 1Q and even 2QAsiantech companies typically operate at reduced levels during the Lunar New Year EquityGlobalTechnology holidays. Yet, we observed markedly different business activity this week vs Jan or a yearago, as our channel check indicates stronger chip orders, higher contract prices andmore active new product development (12-13 Gbps HBM4, PCIe Gen5 eSSD, 1c nodeDRAM, 300+ layers NAND, etc.). We also learned that a large volume of commodityDRAM modules was purchased at 50%+ higher prices vs 4Q25 average. This isconsistent with already well-reported upbeat Jan sales (Taiwan memory up 100%+ YoY)and Korea’s Feb exports (up 100%+ YoY expected). Since new contract prices for Marchand entire 2Q shipments are also likely to rise further MoM/QoQ, upbeat earningsresults (sales/margins) should continue for a while. If we fully reflect the renewedoptimism for DRAM and even NAND, Samsung Electronics’and SK Hynix’s 1Q OP can beUS$20bn+ (W30tn+) exceeding TSMC’s. Since memory chip price is expected to risefurther in April, each Korean memory chipmakers’quarterly OP could easily be exceedUS$20bn or W30tn. Simon Woo, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)+82 2 3707 0554simon.woo@bofa.com Dai Shen>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)dai.shen@bofa.com Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Mikio Hirakawa>>Research AnalystBofAS Japanmikio.hirakawa@bofa.com Raise global forecasts even after Jan updateOverall, we conclude that newly negotiated monthly/quarterly contract prices (for Matt Shin>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul)matt.shin2@bofa.com commodity DRAM and NAND) before/during Lunar New Year holidays were 10%+/-higher than our Jan assumptions. As such, we now expect global DRAM ASP (includingstable HBM) to rise by mid-30% QoQ (ex-HBM: 40%+) in 1Q26 even after the 30%+increase in 4Q25. We also expect decent/further increase in 2Q/3Q/4Q26 ASP (+8%/+2%/+2% QoQ vs our earlier view of nearly flat). Against this backdrop, we raise 2026global sales forecast from US$262bn to US$292bn (+118% YoY based on ASP +84%and bit growth +19%). NAND also looks better with higher ASP (+57% YoY) and strongbit growth (+21%); 2026 global sales should be US$153bn (+89% YoY). Our long-termforecasts still reveal only 5-10% global sales growth p.a. in 2026-27 following threeconsecutive years of upcycle (2024-25), but absolute amount of sales/profit should hitnew record highs even post-2026; see Exhibit 3 for our global memory forecasts. Note: DRAM and NAND spot trading activities were almost none during holidays. New upside in backendTCB/packaging areasMemorysupply-chain companies also provided increasingly bullish guidance this week. Three reasons: (1) current utilization of TCB equipment is mainly for HBM3e rather thanHBM4 or HBM4e (new equipment order increase likely notable soon); (2) longerpackaging/testing period for more advanced DRAM (12+ Gbps LPDDR5, GDDR7,SOCAMM) and NAND (QLC based eSSD, PCIe Gen5, 300+ layers); and (3) underinvestedin memory backend areas, given fab infrastructure (clean room, utilities) and front-endwafer fabrication (lithography, deposition, etching) focused capex spending. Therefore,investors should look at new growth catalysts in TCB equipment and packaging servicecompanies, in our view. Global memory cycle upturn likely to continue in 2026-27EExhibit3:We expect global DRAM sales todouble (+118%+YoY)in 2026Eeven after 86%/52%growthin 2024/25; key contributor should beHynix’s HBM and strong ASP rebound (+84% YoY). NAND sales also expected to grow +89% YoY in 2026, after low-single digit growth in 2025, driven by ASP (+57% YoY)Global memory forecast summary – top-down approach Exhibit10:Only 3-4 weeks for both DRAM and NAND as of 1Q26;lower than normal (1-2 months)Memory chipmakers' inventories-finished chips in weeks Exhibit11:Both DRAM and NAND fabs fully utilized ex old idlecapacity as of Feb 2026Memory chipmakers' fab utilization Record high capex includes heavy infrastructure spendingExhibit14:Hynix’s DRAM capex amount already close to Samsung’s far exceedingUS/China/Taiwan peers; this is mostly for HBM capacity expansion using new fabs (M15X andYongin in Korea)DRAM capex trend Exhibit16: Ex-conventional DRAM equipment capex spend likely up strongly due to HBM, butconventional DRAM and NAND spend broadly disciplined; non-equipment spend for buildings andutilities remain highSPE vs non-SPE capex spend SPE capex spend by memory chipmakers 2026E HBM TAM expansion to US$60bn Exhibit18:We maintain our bullish view on HBM. We assume strong growth in 2026 sales (US$60bn; +74% YoY). This is based on a limited price cut(blended ASP -3%; similar to 5-10% cost reduction; 5-10% price cut for 12-hi HBM3e offset by a 20% price premium for HBM4) and robust bit growth(+80%). Hynix’s proven 12-hi HBM3e and HBM4 (mass producti