结构性增长故事保持完整

Structural growth story remains intact Target PriceUS$31.30(Previous TPUS$26.70)Up/Downside24.8%Current PriceUS$25.09 Wereiterate our positive view on Hesai Group(Hesai).The Companymaintained industry leadership in 2025,andranked firstwith 40.94%marketshare in theforward-facing main LiDAR segment forpre-installed passengercars in China, per GGII.We remain positive that Hesai is poised to growalongside the rising demand for LiDAR products. More use cases in roboticsand industrial markets should propel further TAM expansion over the long run,in ourview.Weliftour TP to US$31.3 per ADS, based on 7.5x 2026E PS(was5.3x),in linewith average one-year forward PS over the past year plus one China Software & IT Services Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hk 4Q25results preview.For 4Q25E,we are expecting revenue ofRMB1.0bn,up 44%YoY,and non-GAAP net profit of RMB107mn,translatinginto 10.3%non-GAAP NPM.Hesai announced that totalshipment volume for LiDAR has surpassed 1.6mn in 2025, among whichc.1.4mn was for ADAS andover200k units were for robotics. The datatranslates intoover 610k units LiDAR shipment in 4Q25, up over 175% YoY.Inour view, this wasdriven byrobustshipment growth of ATX and JT series. Wentao LU,CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Morecatalyststo expect in 2026E.Hesai has secured design wins fromboth of its top 2 ADAS customers across all their 2026 models, featuring100% lidar adoption. Also,the Company’shigh-end ETX LiDAR secured adesign win with a top 3 domestic NEV automaker (which is an existingcustomer of Hesai), paired with multiple FTX units, and mass production isslated for late 2026 or early 2027.Meanwhile, we expect the potentialincrease in L3 adoptionindustry-wideto drivethe industry toward a “multi- TPof US$31.3based on7.5x 2026E PS.Our target multiple of 7.5x 2026EPS was inline with average one-year forwardPS over the past year plus onestandard deviation, higher than industry average of 4.1x 2026E PS, whichin our view could bejustified byHesai’s robust revenue and earnings growthoutlook, and strong competitiveadvantages. We are looking for 43% 2024- Source: FactSet Risks 1)Potential product defects, and other routes of technology proven to be more effectivethan that of LiDAR (such as camera-based system), which may both lead to reduced 2)Lower-than-expected pace of penetration of LiDAR/ADAS; 3)Rising competition from other companies developing LiDAR products, as well asapotential price war in LiDAR industry weighingontheblended ASP of HSAI’s products;4)Higher-than-expected operating expenses leading to slower-than-expected marginexpansion. Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities orissuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealtin or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report.CMBIGM or its affiliate(s) have investment banking relationship with the issuers covered in this report in preceding 12 months. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss ofover 10% over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on theperformance of underlying assets or other variable market factors.CMBIGMrecommends that investors should independently evaluate particular investments or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and