商品展望：结构性地缘政治风险上升支撑价格走高

EuropeNorth America 26 January 2026Date CommoditiesCommodities Structurally higher geopolitical risk to Michael Hsueh Structurally higher geopolitical risk to support higher prices Research Analyst We recognise the likelihood of structurally higher geopolitical volatility, and wepropose important commodity market implications from the fragmented globaloperating environment. Building independent supply chains implicitly requireshigher cost supply, especially with price floor agreements. Oil price downside maybe averted while US foreign policy is less constrained. Resource stockpiling Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst Corinne BlanchardResearch Analyst Cody Hayden Precious metals: Rise of investment demand sustains sharp repricing Research Analyst Gold's continued rise reflects investment motives which may be persistent: higherreserve allocations, and investors raising allocations to non-dollar and real assets.We think USD 6,000/oz is achievable with a weaker dollar this year. Across thewhitemetals, we infer an Asia locus of investment demand intensifying from December.Forsilver,an eventual moderation in XAUXAG may still result in higher absolutesilver prices. For the PGMs China has likely spurred demand, accentuating positive Industrial metals: the copper deficit has arrived As detailed in our 2026 Outlook, we believe an incentive price regime is here to stayforcopper, supported by inelastic mine supply, electrification-linked demanddrivers and high greenfield capex. We forecast a quarterly peak of $13,000/t in Q2followed by some moderation in prices from H2 as production could begin torecover at several major mines. The threat of US tariffs on refined copper shouldlead to continued metal flows to the US in H1, although policy developments couldlead to high volatility later this year. Foraluminium, our core view remains that a Table Of Contents Commodities outlook.........................................................3Deutsche Bank commodity price forecasts.......................................................4Outlook: Structurally higher geopolitical vol......................................................5 Key calls ............................................................................. 9Copper: the deficit has arrived...........................................................................9Aluminium: price regime shift ........................................................................... 9Iron ore: range-bound......................................................................................10Crude oil: Geopolitical supply risk and stockpiling .......................................... 10Gold and silver: Likely to extend gains.............................................................11 Commodities in charts ..................................................... 16China and LME inventory snapshot.................................................................16China indicators...............................................................................................18Copper: the deficit has arrived.........................................................................19Aluminium: tightening outlook........................................................................22Zinc: low inventories support prices................................................................24Global steel: sub-trend demand and high China exports.................................25Iron ore: balanced near-term ........................................................................... 26 Commodities outlook Energy Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26) Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26) Industrial metals and ferrous Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26). Coking coal represent 1m Futures Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26). Coking coal represent 1m Futures Precious metals Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26) Source : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP (data as of 22-Jan-26) Deutsche Bank commodity price forecasts Outlook: Structurally higher geopolitical vol In order to describe the context for commodities this year, we draw upon aspectsof the environment that we think may impinge on commodity performance but arenot directly described in our individual commodity views. These are the geopolitical (A)The first item isgeopolitics, where in DB’s 2026 geopolitical outlook we proposethat higher geopolitical volatility may well be structural in nature, and therefore thatinvestorsshould expect a continued unpredictable and fragmented global Result1:Independent supply chains may require higher cost supply.Forcommodities more broadly speaking, an important mechanism of action resultsfrom more overt great power competition and the resource nationalism associatedwith it. Over a longer term, the