成本降低和新业务盈利能力提升以驱动收益恢复

profitability improvement to driveearnings recovery Costreductionand new businessprofitability Target PriceUS$21.80(Previous TPUS$20.70)Up/Downside16.5%Current PriceUS$18.71 ForKe Holdings’(Beike)4Q25 results,we are anticipating revenue ofRMB22.2bn,down 28.5%YoY due to high base,and non-GAAP NP ofRMB427mn, translating intoNPMof1.9%, after taking into accounttheimpactfrom one-off cost reduction measures.Our 4Q25E revenue and non-GAAPNPforecasts werein linewith Bloomberg consensus if excluding theimpact fromone-off cost reduction measures.We remain positive that Beike is wellpositioned to expand its market share in home transaction business, aided byits strong technological capability, superior service quality, and well-establishedagent cooperation network (ACN).For 2026E, we expect the cost optimizationmeasuresfor core housing transaction business, combined with profitabilityimprovement of new businessesto drive earnings recovery. Meanwhile, wearelooking for RMB7.0bn non-GAAPNP(2025E: RMB4.9bn),implyingYoY growth China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hkMiao ZHANG (852) 3761 8910zhangmiao@cmbi.com.hk Property sales outlook:thepropertysector has benefitted from multiplepolicy tailwinds recently, including 1) financing side: remove “three redlines”, the emphasis placed on this by official media signals an intent toimprove the financing environment for the sector in our view. 2)Demandside: Shanghai's initiative to acquire existing homes for public rental housingwhich theoretically could stabilize secondary home prices by anchoringprice expectations. While the actual impact hinges on the acquisition scaleand execution efficiency, limited scale and core area-focused acquisition Wentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk 4Q25 results preview.For4Q25E, we are looking for total revenue ofRMB22.2bn,down 28.5% YoY,owingto a high base in 4Q24. We arelookingfor non-GAAP OP/NP of RMB40mn/427mn,translating into SOTP-based target price of US$21.8 per ADS.Our TP consists ofUS$20.9/ADS for Beike Core and US$0.9/ADS for Shengdu, and translatesinto 25.9/21.6x 2025E/2026E non-GAAP PE. Maintain BUY. Key risks: 1)slower-than-expected GTV growth for newhomesand existing home sales Source: FactSet Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities orissuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealtin or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interest insecuritiesor enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or expense whatsoever, whether direct or consequential, incurred in relying on the information contained in this report.Anyonemaking use of the information contained in this report does so entirely at their own risk. The information and contents contained in this report are based on the analyses and interp