零售和电子商务：驾驭快速发展的消费经济

Executive Summary In today's economy, customers expect to seamlessly switch between various communicationchannels within the same interaction. This is particularly true in retail and eCommerce, wherethe provision of a secure omnichannel shopping experience is essential. And in 2024, the rapidpace of technological change and fierce competition in the consumer economy are increasing Together, TP and TrendzOwl jointly highlight three key developments impacting the retail andeCommerce sector in an age of customer-centricity and digital transformation: Buy Now, Pay Later(BNPL)Loans Fraud Detection &Prevention Super Agents Machine learning is beingdeployed to assist withintelligent payment routingand fraud management, withonline merchants utilizingfraud detection tools toaugment everything from The advent of large languagemodels is super-chargingthe trend toward hyper-personalization. Human agentsare becoming "Super Agents" Credit rating agency Moody'sprojected that the total valueof transactions funded by buynow, pay later (BNPL) loansexceeded $300 billion in 2023.That momentum continues asshoppers seek ways to breakpurchases into manageableamounts due to higherinflation. As a result, over one- Background It seems the global retail industry is at a crossroads, “forced to make decisions about long terminvestments in new technology and business models while at the same time managing the risingcost of doing business and a decline in the spending power of consumers.”1But while recent As investor Matthew Ball notes, “total eCommerce spend is up 27% since 2020 (11% afterinflation) because retail spending has grown, too.”2It’s a worldwide trend. According to arecent global survey, “Considering the uncertainty surrounding the global landscape, retailers’expectations are relatively optimistic for 2024. Indeed, the industry unilaterally anticipates a net That would certainly be good news in the United States, where consumer spending accountsfor over two-thirds of economic activity. Susan Reda at the National Retail Federation looks atthe situation and wonders, “How will these factors and myriad others affect the retail industry in Consumer Preference for the Human Touch: the Rise of the “Super Agent” 57,534 interviews were conducted withend-consumers across nineteen sectors andeleven geographies. And it reveals a plottwist to the developing AI story. The surveyresults show that even as the pursuit ofinnovative approaches to support continuesapace, only 7% of eRetail consumers prefer The emergence of AI is shaking thefoundations of retail and eCommerce. As Forbesrecently pointed out, “AI has beenand will continue to be the most significantdisruptor in retail since the advent of onlineshopping…. AI technologies and solutionswill drive innovation faster, improve the In fact, according to research firm IDC,retail ranks second among all industriesglobally when it comes to spending on AItechnologies. “And a new study conductedby IHL Group reveals that retailers thathave already embraced artificial intelligenceand machine learning technologies areexperiencing noteworthy success, achieving In fact, the survey also reveals that despitethe recent hype surrounding genAI, thepercentage of consumers contacting theirbrands through chatbots (automated orgenAI-powered bots) has not increasedsince 2022.9And in 2024, although genAIis helping empower chatbots in onlineenvironments to manage service requests,only 28% of consumers agree that AI botsimprove customer support.10The Wall StreetJournalputs it this way: “Consumers oftenask questions in a casual, conversationalway, or include questions that have typos or And “While hyper-personalization is not anovel idea for eCommerce business, theadvent of large language models couldpotentially increase its significance evenfurther.”7Such assertions are borne outin a comprehensive new report by TP’sBusiness Insights Lab that identifies themain trends in customer-brand interaction In the Lab’s new Global Insights B2C survey, At the same time, the 2024 TP survey alsofinds that although 62% of consumersshow clear preference for human support(across all generations, genders, countries,and sectors) online shoppers representone of the handful of categories withinwhich automated or AI bot assistance isincreasing.12This speaks to the power ofcombining technology with human beingsin customer management, which speaks inturn to the rise of tomorrow’s “Super Agent." 61% strongly prefer Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Loans Along with a growing preference for digital and virtual shopping comes the demand for moreflexible payment options. And crypto payments, local digital payments (such as PIX and Alipay),and buy now pay later (BNPL) loans stand out as the fastest-growing payment methods in While increasing costs for daily necessities such as fuel and groceries means that consumershave pulled back on spending—particularly low-income shoppers—BNPL lenders aregrowing increasingly savvy when it