USEQUITIESCOLORUGLY美股盘面分析

美股盘面分析：惨淡 6 February 2026 | 6:39 AM China Standard Time S&P -123bps closing @ 6，798 w/ a MOC of 160mto BUY. NDX -138bps @ 24，549. R2K -179bps @ 2，578 and Dow -120bps @ 48，9 U.S. EQUITIES COLOR: UGLY 美股盘面分析：惨淡 6 February 2026 | 6:39 AM China Standard Time S&P -123bps closing @ 6，798 w/ a MOC of 160mto BUY. NDX -138bps @ 24，549. R2K -179bps @ 2，578 and Dow -120bps @ 48，909. 23.39b shares traded across all US equity exchanges vs ytd daily avg of 19.53b shares. VIX +17.76% @21.88，WTI Crude -298bps @ 63.20，US 10YR -8bps @ 4.19%，gold -315bps @ 4，810，dxy +32bps @ 97.93 andBitcoin -12.5% @ 63，430. 标普500指数下跌123个基点，收于6，798点，收盘竞价（MOC）为1.6亿美元买入。 纳斯达克100指数下跌138个基点，报24，549点。 罗素2000指数下跌179个基点，报2，578点；道琼斯指数下跌120个基点，报48，909点。 美国各股票交易所总成交量为23.39亿股，而今年以来的日均成交量为19.53亿股。 VIX指数上涨17.76%，报21.88；WTI原油下跌298个基点，报63.20美元；美国10年期国债收益率下跌8个基点，报4.19%；黄金下跌315个基点，报4，810美元；美元指数（DXY）上涨32个基点，报97.93；比特币下跌12.5%，报63，430美元。 Another ugly session with mkt breadth also deteriorating (Equal Weight -92bps) and SPX through 50dma and 100dma (6，794AH). Momentumtraded -140bps following one of its worst sessions in 10+ years driven by continued weakness in tech as mktdigested GOOGL’s massive capex number (despite rev growth well above cons) and weaker Jobs data (Challenger jobs cuts werethe highest start the year since 2009 and Jobless claims touch higher). Eyes remained on Bitcoin in free fall mode，trading -13% at$63k. POST BELL: AMZN -14% on higher capex ~$200bn in CY26 and moving pieces on OI. We are seeing long supply in thepost mkt. In Hcare，MOH -27% AH on earnings miss and guide below. 又是一个惨淡的交易日，市场广度进一步恶化（等权重指数下跌92个基点），标普500指数跌破50日和100日均线（盘后报5，794点）。 动量因子在经历了10多年来最糟糕的交易日之一后，今日再度下跌140个基点，主因是市场在消化谷歌（GOOGL）庞大的资本支出数据（尽管营收增长远超共识）后科技股持续走弱，以及就业数据疲软（挑战者裁员人数创下2009年以来最高的开年纪录，且初请失业金人数小幅走高）。 市场目光仍聚焦在处于暴跌模式的比特币上，其交易价格下跌13%至6.3万美元。 盘后动态：亚马逊（AMZN）因2026财年约2000亿美元的高额资本支出以及营业利润（OI）的变动因素，盘后大跌14%。 我们看到盘后市场出现多头抛压。 医疗保健板块方面，Molina Healthcare（MOH）因业绩不及预期且指引低于预期，盘后暴跌27%。 GS PB Performance Estimates for today: 高盛主经纪商业务（GS PB）今日表现预估： – Systematic L/S slightly up (+0.2%). A small rebound fromyesterday with US driving the positive returns partially offset by EMAsia and Europe.系统化多空策略（Systematic L/S）微涨（+0.2%）。 较昨日小幅反弹，美国市场贡献了正收益，但被新兴市场亚洲和欧洲的表现部分抵消。 – Fundamental L/S down 0.8% mainly driven by market/beta. TMT managers down another 1.7% today. 基本面多空策略（Fundamental L/S）下跌0.8%，主要受市场/贝塔因素驱动。 TMT基金经理今日再度下跌1.7%。 – MultiStrats down 1.2% volatility，crowded shorts and profitability among negative drivers.多策略基金（MultiStrats）下跌1.2%，波动率、拥挤的空头头寸以及盈利能力是主要的负面驱动因素。 Our floor was a 8 on a 1 – 10 scale in terms of overall activity levels. Our floor finished -635bps for sale vs a 30 – day avg of -101bps. LOs finished -$1b net sellers，primarily by macro products vs some demand in software fromclients trying to pick abottomin this group. HFs finished -$2b net sellers driven by supply in macro expressions and tech vs demand in industrials andcommservices. Elsewhere，it was a very successful debut for Forgent Power Solutions (FPS) priced at 27，opened at 26 on7.5mshares，and closed at 29. 以1 – 10分衡量，我们交易台的总活跃度为8分。 我们交易台最终录得635个基点的净卖出，而30日平均值为101个基点的净卖出。 长线基金（LOs）最终净卖出10亿美元，主要集中在宏观产品，而软件板块则出现部分需求，因客户试图在该板块抄底。 对冲基金（HFs）最终净卖出20亿美元，主要受宏观表达工具和科技股的抛盘驱动，而工业和通信服务板块则有买盘需求。 此外，Forgent Power Solutions（FPS）的首秀非常成功，定价27美元，以750万股开盘报26美元，最终收于29美元。 Expect CTA supply estimates to ramp with SPX，NDX，and RTY all through short termthresholds and mediumterm(wheremost notional lives) within reach SPX (6704)，NDX (24，708 already below)，and RTY (2467). 预计CTA的抛压估值将增加，因为标普500指数（SPX）、纳斯达克100指数（NDX）和罗素2000指数期货（RTY）均已跌破短期阈值，且正逼近中期阈值（大部分名义本金所在）：SPX（6704）、NDX（24，708，已跌破）和RTY（2467）。 DERIVS: Following an extended move lower across all three major indices today，desk continued to see the monetization and unwinding ofindex hedges. It feels like clients are slowly repositioning themselves now that we’re below the 100d moving average in SPX，andan aggressive rally back to all – time highs feels less priced into the distribution of outcomes. Moves under the surface have beenextreme this week with sparse liquidity at these levels，and we see dealers flatter gamma here，getting shorter on continuedselloffs. Yesterday’s momentumunwind impacted the vol market，causing our US Panic Index to hit 8.3 (89th percentile on 3yrlookback). Flow wise，we saw several clients selling puts to monetize on the hopes of a potential end to the current selloff. Theimplied move through tomorrow is 1.10%. (ty Shayna Peart) 衍生品：随着今日三大指数持续走低，交易台继续观察到指数对冲的获利了结与平仓。 感觉客户正在缓慢重新调仓，因为标普500指数（SPX）目前已跌破100日均线，且市场预期中重回历史高点的激进反弹可能性已有所降低。 本周表面之下的波动极其剧烈，且在当前水平流动性稀缺，我们看到交易商的伽马（Gamma）趋于平坦，并在持续抛售中转为做空。 昨日的动量平仓影响了波动率市场，导致我们的美国恐慌指数（US Panic Index）达到8.3（处于3年回测数据的第89百分位）。 资金流方面，我们看到多位客户通过卖出看跌期权来获利，寄希望于当前的抛售潮可能结束。 截至明天的隐含波动幅度为1.10%。