Lumentum：进入另一个发展阶段

USA | Telecom & Networking Equipment Equity ResearchFebruary 3, 2026 Lumentum Another leap ahead in both revenue ($800M+ guide) and profitability with guidance suggesting nearly 1200bps of operating expansion in just twoquarters. The laser opportunity continues to expand with capacity and speedtransitions with the incremental growth vectors including Transceivers, CPO, optical interconnect. Growth is coming across all segments of the Cloud and Networking business with the laser components business leading the way as capacity grew 20% in Q4 but demandis still outstripping supply by 30%. The transition of 1.6T is pushing faster, helping push bothASPs and margins. This quarter also marks the first quarter selling CW lasers, where LITE believesover half the volumes will move at 1.6T, though EML makes up the majority today. The desire toguarantee capacity has led to all current and even future capacity being reserved with LTAs bymajor customers. The Transceiver module business is also hitting stride, growing nearly $50M inthe quarter and is now expected to exceed last quarter’s $250M cap expected to be reached by the end of the calendar year as demand continues to expand beyond expectations. While transceiversare still a drag on margins, the outsized growth in the rest of the business and the benefits ofscale in the transceiver business help offset much of the headwind. Outside of the core transceiver/laser component business, the company also received a multi-hundred-million dollar order for CPO Components up ($444M, +17% Q/Q) driven by strong demand across laser chips, laser assembliesand in-line subsystems going primarily into inter-DC, DCI, and long-haul applications. Systemsup ($222M, +43% Q/Q) on Transceiver outperformance ($50M increase in Cloud Tx) offsetting Equity ResearchFebruary 3, 2026 The Long View: Lumentum Investment Thesis / Where We Differ •We continue to see LITE as a share winner with the move to EMLs andexpect growth in the transceiver business as well as the market looking formore US capacity.•Despite investor CPO fears, LITE share capture will be enough to offsetcontent reduction to make any CPO adoption a wash. Downside Scenario,$250, -43% Base Case,$550, +26% amongServiceProvider transceiver business via new market share wins amongcustomers lingers through 2025. completed.The business returns to morenormal run rates and improves as AI-basedtraffic growth drives their DCI and transmission and organic market growth. Data centers pivotFundamental end-market demand deteriorates hard toward EML-based transceiver designsand single-mode fiber.–further extending the excess customerinventory issue. business. •The Cloud Light / Transceiver business wins•Lumentum is not able to execute against their •The Cloud Light / Transceiver business stays at status quo with 3 Cloud Provider customers(including Google). current 3 wins). •Underlying Datacom market demand remains for Lumentum. •Price Target: $800implies 32x our CY28 EPS of$25.00. Sustainability Matters Catalysts Top Material Issue(s): 1) Product Design and Lifecycle Managementare important considerations •New Cloud Provider wins. Process (PDP) framework allows the company to complete as many design iterations as possible prior toproduction readiness. This enables teams to quickly identify programs that may need to be discontinued or revised before spending resources on production. This has not only improved product quality and savedproduction costs, but helped teams identify higher power, more efficient, and lower cost solutions for products. Qs to Mgmt: 1)What are Lumentum’s short- and medium-term hiring goals as they relate to diversity,equity, and inclusion?2)Do advances in power and cost reduction for customers allow for greater pricing power, and how important are these factors in conversations with customers? This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. We model Cloud & Networking better at $609M (+28% Q/Q, vs St. $576M) driven by strength in LaserChips and Telecom. We model Industrial Tech slightly below at $57M (flat Q/Q, vs St. $58M) with continued softness in Industrial Laser and slight growth in 3D Sensing. GM came in ahead at 42.5% (vsSt. 39.7%). OM came in much higher at 25.2% (vs St. 21.1%) on lower Opex at $115M (vs St. $121M).EPS reported well above at $1.67 (vs St. $1.41). Monster March Beat as Margins Expand Even Further:March revenue guided above at $805M (+21% 1/3 Systems (we model Components +21% to $538M and Systems +20% to $267M). While not guided,we model Cloud & Networking up 25% Q/Q (vs St. +6% Q/Q) with 35% growth in DC laser componentsand 25% growth in transceiver modules. We model Industrial Tech to be flat (vs St. +2% Q/Q) withlasers and 3D sensing both flat. GM expected to be up Q/Q with path to continued expansion up in the40s%. OM guided above at 30.5% (vs St. 22.0%). All in, EPS guided ahead at $2.25 (vs St. $1.60). Taxrate