2035_主题_地图_150_趋势_编辑_6_导航_多极_乐观

2035 Thematic Roadmap: 150Trends (Edition 6): Navigating SIGNATURE Thematic Investing Hiral Patel Our latest analysis of thematic data and alternativeinvestment signals indicates a need to be more selectivewhen investing in trends for the next decade, with theoverarching theme of 'Multipolar Optimism' driving material +44 (0)20 3134 1618hiral.patel@barclays.comBarclays, UKLaia Marin i Sola, CFA + 44 (0)20 3134 2531laia.marin@barclays.comBarclays, UK Siddharth Gupta+91 22 6175 2540siddharth.gupta1@barclays.comBarclays, UK Listen Hannah Greenberg+1 212 526 2457hannah.greenberg@barclays.com Katherine Ogundiya+44 (0)20 3134 1391katherine.a.ogundiya@barclays.comBarclays, UK William Thompson+1 212 526 8641william.s.thompson@barclays.comBCI, US Amy Lian+44 (0)20 3134 0179amy.lian@barclays.comBarclays, UK CONTENTS EDITION 6: NAVIGATING MULTIPOLAR OPTIMISM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Rethinking thematics in a fragmented decade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Introducing our Multipolar Optimism framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8- Geopolitical polarisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9- Social polarisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11- Environmental polarisation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 DISSECTING EDITION 6. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19Summary of additions, removals and material changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . 201) Technology & Financials. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222) Consumer, Food & Retail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253) Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284) Health & Modern Science. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 ROADMAP RETROSPECTIVE: PATTERNS & PIVOTS ACROSS 6 EDITIONS (2020-26). . 40Structural risers and decliners, steady deliverers and volatile movers. 41 APPENDIX: METHODOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462035 Thematic Roadmap plotting and external data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46From 2030 to 2035: A natural progression. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We present the sixth edition of our Thematic Roadmap, extending the timehorizon to 2035 from 2030 to deepen our long-standing focus on structuralchange and investor positioning for the next decade. This year's roadmapleverages expanded datasets to quantify theeffectthat our 150 identifiedtrends will have on society (Figure 1). In an era marked by geopoliticalfragmentation, resource nationalism and ongoing erosion of social trust, weadopt a more discerning investment outlook when positioning for 2026-27. In the near term, we advocate for greater selectivity when positioning for2026-27, as we see the likelihood of more binary outcomes emerging at thetrend level. We see trends focused on resilience and localisation benefiting fromstronger competitive moats, with premiums placed on trends that can thrive in Consistent with prior editions, we continue to leverage a wide range of thematicdatasets – relating to patents, M&A, hiring, private funding and more – toidentify both emerging investment opportunities and to quantify our 'impact vs.likelihood' roadmap methodology. This year, we add nine new trends and 2035 Thematic Roadmap: 150 Trends – What is it? Our roadmap outlines 150 trends across six thematic paradigms that we believe willdominate our discussions with investors looking out across the next decade (Figure1). Leveraging the expertise of our sector analysts and a wide range of alternativedatasets, we consider the trends that could potentially impact investment portfoliosbased on our ‘impact vs. likelihood’ methodology (refer toAppendix). Relative toEdition 1 (published in 2020), this year's update re-anchors our roadmap's time Edition 6 – Global challenges, fractured consensus, divergent Heightened geopolitical tensions, ongoing fragmentation of the world order andmacroeconomic uncertainty create profound nuances to our 2035 ThematicRoadmap, with several pressure points and potential roadblocks to consider whendetermining how to invest for the next decade – even as key technologies such as AIcontinue to gain traction. Our overarching theme for this year's annual update,'Navigating Multipolar Optimism' (Figure 3), conceptualises the various globaldynamics influencing our 150 trends, including multiple, overlapping and InSection Oneof this report, we assess each trend through the lens of four polarisation types – Geopolitical (Figure 4), Social (Figure 5), Environmental (Figure6) and Economic (Figure 7) – highlighting the key