固定收益博客美国前线的最后一个周期性希望-119710867

Rates Fixed Income Blog The last cyclical hope for the US front-end Francis YaredStrategist The rates market has priced out one rate cut relative to peak dovishness threemonths ago but is still pricing a little more than two additional rate cuts overall.Therecentdata and eventshave left tomorrow’s core CPI printasthe last cyclical Matthew RaskinStrategist From a structural perspective, both tails on AIcontinue tocreate downside risksto our view of higher equilibrium rates in the US. Steven Zeng, CFAStrategist Fiscal dominance couldalsobe supportive of the US front-end, but short of theFed introducing YCC, it should be reflected in higher long-end rates. Andrew FuStrategist We maintain our mild bearish bias for US duration. Ioannis SokosStrategist As outlined inouroutlook, there are both structural and cyclical reasons to bewary about being long the US front-end. From a structural perspective, most ofthe post-GFC decline in equilibrium interest rates is likely to reverse given theshift in the global supply/demand of savings. From a cyclical perspective, the ex-AI part of the US economy should recover as the policy mix transitions from tightmonetary and fiscal policies in 2025 to a positive fiscal impulse, neutral if notalready accommodative monetary policy, and easier regulations in 2026. The Markus HeiderMacro Strategist+44-20-754-52167 Soniya SadeeshStrategist Gabriele CozziStrategist Strong growth. US GDP surprised to the upside in Q3. GDP trackers have beenrevised higher in recent weeks and are consistent with even stronger growth in Source:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Source:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Labour market stabilising around the breakeven rate. The volatility of non-farmpayrolls is notorious. Our analysis suggests that jobless claims have historicallyprovided a slightly more accurate signal in real-time (link). Jobless claims arecurrently some distance from triggering a Sahm rule. Overall, the labour market Source:Deutsche Bank, Haver Analytics, Department of Labor Fiscal impulse shifting from headwind to tailwinds, with upside risks.The (lowerthan advertised) tariff revenues resulted in fiscal tightening in 2025. Theserevenues are already expected to be spent (and some more) via the BBB in 2026.In addition, the administration has floated proposals to spend these tariffrevenues multiple more times (e.g., checks to consumers, defence spending). subsidies) or to be more considerate in reinstating tariffs if they are struck down Source:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Lending standards consistent with monetary policy close to neutral.For the pastfew quarters, lending standardshave beenconsistent with underlying growtharound potential. In practice, growth has been stronger than implied by lending Source:Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LP Financial conditions consistent with easy monetary policy.Financial conditionindices are as volatile as their constituents. This limits their usefulness as aleading indicator of monetary policy. Nonetheless, as a cross-check of lending 12 January 2026Fixed Income Blog Regulatory easing raises the bar for Fed cuts.The US Administration is likely tofurther ease banking sector regulation with proposals which are likely to include,amongst others, lower leverage capital constraints (eSLR) and a more benignBasel III endgame. Easier regulation should increase credit velocity and therefore Reduced downside risks to oil prices.We highlighted a supply shock to oil pricesas one of the key risks to our bearish duration bias. As it were, oil prices haveproved to be relatively resilient to recent geopolitical events. More importantly,one could argue that the current environment is increasing the incentives for Upsiderisksto core goods inflation.The market has heavily discounted theimpact of tariffs on US inflation. However, leading indicators are consistent withsome passthrough in the months ahead. Short of a full reversal of tariffs, this Downside risks forrents.Aspointed out inpreviouspublications, the recent softtrend in alternative rent indicatorssuggestspotential downside risks for rental Both tails on AI remain a structural downside riskto our view of higher equilibrium rates.If AI is a bubble that bursts, the Fed is likely to be at least temporarily moredovish. Alternatively, AI could result in a more structural increase in inequalities 12 January 2026Fixed Income Blog Bottom line.From a pure cyclical perspective, tomorrow’s US CPI (and furtherweakness in OER) is the last hope to justify a more dovish Fed than currentlypriced in. Given likely market positioning (steepeners and/or long the front-end),the front-end could be vulnerable to anupside surprise to US CPI, withDB From a structural perspective, both tails on AI also create downside risks to ourview of higher equilibrium rates in the US. Finally, fiscal dominance could be supportive of the US front-end, but short of theFed intr