为AI供电：电压升高，电流降低——两种无需增加发电量即可解决电力短缺的方案

Powering AI: Volts up, Amps down- 2 solutions to the powershortage that don't involve more generation The risk of a 50 GW power supply shortfall by 2030 in the US has helped catalyze a massiverally in power generation stocks, but this challenge also creates an opportunity to focusimproving productivity. The most efficient way to increase power supply without increasingcapacity is by stepping up the voltage. 2 technologies do just that: shifting from 54 volt to800 volt architecture in AI data centers and expanding transmission build-outs beyond 345–500 kV to include 765 kV lines. Both will be deployed at scale through the end of the decadeand should have a meaningful impact on electrical infrastructure companies. This note is abrief primer. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469 Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432 Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952 The market is myopically focused on the power generation theme, but needs torevisit power efficiency.In the last 12 months, power generation stocks (CAT, CMI, GEV,etc.) are up 80% vs. the S&P, compared to down 10% vs. the S&P for power distribution &management stocks (ETN, SU, ABB, HUBB, etc.). Thus far, the market clearly endorses thebrute force capacity expansion approach, but power distribution & management stocks arepoised to reclaim some lost ground as higher voltage infrastructure plays a bigger role inincreasing power supply. Higher voltage means a lower level of current, which translatesinto less power waste via heat loss. Transitioning to 800V and 765kV infrastructure caneach improve power efficiency by as much as 5%. Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192 Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401 The rise of 800V data centers.With each new generation of NVIDIA chip, the rackdensity increases; once it crosses 200kW in 2027 with the launch of Rubin Ultra, datacenter architecture will need to change. Under the current 54V architecture, powerenters the data center at 14 kV AC and gradually gets stepped down before reachingthe chip. Under the new 800V architecture, power enters the data center at 800V DCand continues at that voltage through the facility then steps down before it reachesthe chip. The equipment needs are different: for starters, DC replaces AC equipment,several products are redundant (UPS, cabling), while new products show up (solid statetransformers - why ETN acquired Resilient Power Systems, DC busways, more batteries).Also, NVIDIA has formed official partnerships with select OEMs, the likely leaders in thistransition:Eaton, Schneider, ABB, Vertiv, Hitachi, Navitas. With some products still indevelopment and TAM impact uncertain, we offer this framework:ETNhas quantified an AIdata center TAM of $2.1M/MW (pre-Boyd) and assuming it enables 5% efficiency gains via800V architecture and approaches these savings through the lens of value based pricing,then these savings may be worth $100K/MW to OEMs or 6% of the TAM. The return of 765kV transmission.It has been 2 decades since the US built the last765 kV transmission line, but the conditions are right to restart. Power growth is inflecting(grid operators estimate +3.5% per year, vs. nearly flat for the last 20 years) and every 1%increase requires a 2.5% increase in transmission capacity. Most of the demand growth isfrom large loads (data centers, factories, etc.) - an ideal use case for 765 kV, which requiresa large off-take to justify. Also, it is more efficient than 345-500kV lines – smaller footprint,lower capex, less power loss. A single 765kV line carries as much power as 5 345kV lines.PWRis best positioned. It has built 75% of all 765kV lines in the US and recently entered apartnership with AEP, who operates 90% of all 765kV lines. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Machinery & Electrical Equipment We maintain our Outperform ratings forEaton(PT $395) andHubbell(PT $530). Our preliminary estimates suggest thetransition to 800VDC architecture can help electrical equipment OEMs unlock a 6% higher AI data center TAM captured fromelectricity cost savings. Given ETN generates ~20% of its Electrical sales from Data Centers & Distributed IT, we view it as a keybeneficiary. ETN’s traditional data center TAM is estimated at $1.2-$1.5M per MW, which expands by 50% to $1.2-$2.9M in anAI data center (or $2.1M per MW at the midpoint). We estimate the value generated by 800VDC can help ETN capture another ~$100k per MW, up to $2.2M per MW. We also maintain our Market-Perform ratings forCaterpillar(PT $630),Cummins(PT $544), andQuanta(PT $428). If wecontinue to see data center power localized through behind-the-meter alternatives like onsite industrial gas turbines (benefitsCAT most given their Solar business, and less so CMI whose portfolio is focused around standby generation only), then thiseffectively eats into Quanta’s high-voltage transmission opportunity that gets disintermediated as data centers prefer an off-grid connection. Nonetheless, we forecast that only a minority of data centers will choose